Just looking for clues at the scene of the crime...
'A global recession probability model by @NDR_Research recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times the model’s been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009.'
"All those factors that cause a bull market, they're not only stopping, they're reversing. We are in deep trouble. You don't even need to talk about Black Swans to be worried here. To me, the risk reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of sense"
"Right now it is all about market volatility. You have investors staying away because of the volatility — and investors staying away increases volatility. It is a volatility vortex."
'Taking global government bonds as a whole, all gains over the last 10 years have been eliminated. A collapse like this without the destruction of a war to propel it really is unprecedented.'
'The NFT market is collapsing. Sales fell to a daily average of about 19,000 this week, a 92% decline from a peak of about 225,000 in September. Active wallets fell 88% to about 14,000 last week from a high of 119,000 in November.'
The real Fed Funds Rate currently stands at -4.1%, the most deeply negative rate since 1980.
'Four years ago, America elected its first billionaire president. Since then, the nation’s 200-or-so wealthiest people - a cohort representing 0.00006% of the population - have increased their combined wealth from less than $1.8t to more than $2.8t.'
'On Sunday, an inauspicious milestone was achieved: The yield curve remained inverted for an entire quarter which has for half a century been a clear signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months.'