Jesse Felder

Jesse Felder


Just looking for clues at the scene of the crime...

150181 followers  •  77 follow  •    •   http://thefelderreport.com

'The Fed's projections have no precedent: Never has the unemployment rate increased by 0.5% or more without a recession, and never in post-war history has it risen by just 0.9 percentage point (after 0.5, the next stop is 2 percentage points).'

'A global recession probability model by @NDR_Research  recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times the model’s been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009.'

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"All those factors that cause a bull market, they're not only stopping, they're reversing. We are in deep trouble. You don't even need to talk about Black Swans to be worried here. To me, the risk reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of sense"

"This is responding to the risk of market malfunction. It goes counter to what they need to do to for inflation so it highlights the inconsistency of monetary policy. It was about to do QT and now it's injecting liquidity."

'The country that resembles the U.K. most closely is the U.S. While the reserve status of the dollar and Treasury debt insulates the U.S. from some of the pressures buffeting Britain, its fiscal policy is just as miscalibrated.'

"Right now it is all about market volatility. You have investors staying away because of the volatility — and investors staying away increases volatility. It is a volatility vortex."

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'Taking global government bonds as a whole, all gains over the last 10 years have been eliminated. A collapse like this without the destruction of a war to propel it really is unprecedented.'

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'In the US, debt-to-GDP rose from 34% in 1982 to 127% in 2021. Such borrowing was relatively painless with ultra-low rates. It now becomes a debilitating vulnerability as central banks raise rates and shrink their balance sheets to address inflation.'

"The inflation we are now experiencing is not due to wage gains from excessive worker power. It is due to profit gains from excessive corporate power. It's profits, not wages, that need to be controlled."

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'The NFT market is collapsing. Sales fell to a daily average of about 19,000 this week, a 92% decline from a peak of about 225,000 in September. Active wallets fell 88% to about 14,000 last week from a high of 119,000 in November.'

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The real Fed Funds Rate currently stands at -4.1%, the most deeply negative rate since 1980.

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'Four years ago, America elected its first billionaire president. Since then, the nation’s 200-or-so wealthiest people - a cohort representing 0.00006% of the population - have increased their combined wealth from less than $1.8t to more than $2.8t.'

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'On Sunday, an inauspicious milestone was achieved: The yield curve remained inverted for an entire quarter which has for half a century been a clear signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months.'

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'I don’t believe there will be another financial crisis in our lifetimes.' -Janet Yellen, 2017 ‘We will not have any more crashes in our time.’ -John Maynard Keynes, 1927

Google search trends for "call options" and "day trading" is pretty telling:

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'The richest 10% of Americans own 88% of the $29 trillion in corporate stock and mutual fund shares, according to the Federal Reserve.'

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