Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz. Author of NYT bestsellers "When Markets Collide" and “The Only Game in Town.”
The @FT on the latest industrial production numbers for the #Eurozone which are better than consensus expectations Of particular note: the significant continued divergence between the tradeable and non-tradeable sectors, including the lack of negative contagion from manufacturing
From the latest @nberpubs Digest (always worth a read) on the working paper on the secular stagnation hypothesis Shows how a measure of an average OECD neutral interest rate has evolved relative to GDP growth, and points to possible policy implications —past, present and future.
Love simple charts that suggest several competing and complementary hypotheses. Here’s an example from an article on #Mexico in @TheEconomist . GDP #growth has almost always picked up during the 2nd year of a new President’s administration. I can think of at least 4 reasons why!
FYI, and as 2020 approaches, my thoughts via the @FT on some of the key analytical issues facing the design and implementation of longer-term #investment approaches ... and the implications. #markets #economy #investing #investors #trade #currency @WSJ
@WSJ on #growth divergence in the global #economy While the general hypothesis is correct, the exact focus is different for me given continued concern about Europe Specifically, the big divergence for me is between the US and most other advanced countries
Peaceful in #LagunaBeach as police separates small group of outside protestors from bigger counter protest--in no's,ideas,tolerance & impact
This sharp fall in yields on US government #bonds —the 10 year is now #trading at 2.62% in reaction to #Apple ’s signals about weaker global growth—is truly remarkable ... and especially given that the #Fed has been reducing its balance sheet and the tapering its . #QE #china
With today's move, the entire yield curve for government #bonds in #Germany closed at negative levels. This will take the stock of negative-yielding bonds worldwide to some $15 trillion. Given what has occurred since #European #markets closed, look for both to get worse tomorrow.
I just couldn't resist taking a photo of this for my file on the unlikely/unthinkable becoming reality! It's so unusual to see 2- and 10-year government bonds trading at exactly the same yield. @CNBC #markets #economy #bonds #yields #yieldcurve
Bloomberg re move to safe assets: Over the past six months,money market funds attracted $322 billion of inflows,the largest flight to safe assets since the second half of 2008. In similar fashion to 2007 and 2008,investors raised their cash holdings despite falling interest rates
As tweeted yesterday, even some high yield ("junk") #bonds now trade at negative yields--ie, creditors PAY for the privilege of financing companies with notable default risk. These bonds are part of a stock of negative-yielding securities worldwide that now exceeds $13 trillion.
@WSJ chart illustrating why the official estimate for #China 's Q-3 #GDP #growth -- 6% annual growth--is attracting so much attention: Already the lowest official reading in nearly three decades (that is, including the global financial crisis), it's likely to get weaker. #economy