Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mohamed A. El-Erian


Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz. Author of NYT bestsellers "When Markets Collide" and “The Only Game in Town.”

409202 followers  •  925 follow  •    •   https://t.co/VyDNpr6LI5

From @NFLonCBS  Sad, and soon to be 11 straight #Jets  losses to the #Pats  While I could point to a few positive things in the @nyjets  performance, I won't We'll get nowhere unless we do the basic things much better,from tackling to avoiding silly penalties The agony will continue

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Good morning. My thoughts on this week's @federalreserve  meeting including What is likely to occur, Why, and How this compares to what I believe is needed to reduce the risk of derailing a strong and inclusive economic recovery. #economy  #Fed  @bopinion 

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The 3% plus fall in #HongKong 's stock market is placing pressure on global #stocks--this  as more #investors  question conventional wisdoms that had fueled the flow of foreign funds to China (from bailouts to a relatively unfettered government approach to private sector activity).

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With a down 1% Futures backdrop for the open of US #markets  coming on top of three straight weeks of losses, today's trading session will be a notable test for the "buy-the-dip"/"there is no alternative"/FOMO narrative that has impressively powered #stocks  through prior headwinds

For reasons detailed in earlier notes, it takes a significant market accident/policy mistake to reverse the behavioral conditioning that's been key to the generalized rally in asset markets A question debated today: How do financial contagion from #China  and the #Fed  fit in this?

First time in a while that moves in various asset classes correspond to historical correlations: The generalized selloff in #stocks  and other risk assets is accompanied by significantly lower government bond yields/commodities, and a #VIX  spike. Also notable: 9% fall in #Bitcoin .

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The pattern in #markets  so far today that is similar to that of several days in the last three weeks: The initial fall in #stocks  attracted dip-buyers but the follow-up buying has proven disappointing so far (S&P below). The rest of the session will be particularly interesting.

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US stock futures point to a bounce at the open, reversing part of yesterday's losses Encouraging, especially given the continued uncertainty trifecta: #Evergrande 's future, the scope of contagion within/outside #China , and tomorrow's @federalreserve  announcement #markets  #economy 

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If you have a few minutes, may I please ask you to read this (link below)? This is only the second time since I've been tweeting that I make such an ask...and do so because,by being informed about what's ahead, we stand a better chance of responding better

Judging from the images on the news of large crowds in public spaces, the next few weeks’ infection/hospitalization numbers out of some US states will shed light on the following: either we are re-opening with insufficient health safeguards or the lockdown was a big overreaction.

What if it's not just the risk of "zombie companies" eroding the productivity and dynamism of the economy...but also zombie #markets  mis-pricing risk/mis-allocating capital due to heavy official intervention? There are better ways to help people and minimize future hits to growth

@warrenbuffet  on Why he's not buying stocks in size: sensitivity to tail events and the '08 reminder "we don't see all the problems the first day." On whether others should buy now: Only if you expect to hold for a long time and are financially and psychologically ready to do so

The strong get stronger and the rich get richer while the weak get weaker and the poor struggle more. A larger disparity of wealth is one of the many awful outcomes of the #covid  economic shock, a great unequalizer which is also worsening the inequality of opportunity and income.

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This @FT  chart place in historical context the recent surge in US margin #debt  in the midst of very low interest rates and ample liquidity. #markets .

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Worse than expected drop in US Q-1 GDP — at minus 4.8% —is indicative of the huge economic hit. With the shut down not reaching critical mass until the start of the fourth week of March, quick back of the envelope calculations suggest the Q-2 contraction could be as large as 40%

May I please ask you a favor? May we all make a point of thanking those who continue to show up to work and allow various services and production processes to continue? From our stores and banks to factories and the like, they are taking higher personal health risks for our sake,

There's an inclination by some to dismiss the 17 million surge in jobless claims as quickly reversible, risking to under-appreciate current/future pain inflicted on many Re current:Look at lines outside food banks Future:Look at the complexities of when/how to restart the economy

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