Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz. Author of NYT bestsellers "When Markets Collide" and “The Only Game in Town.”
The yield on 10-year US government #bonds is currently trading in Asia below 1.80% and the 2s-10s curve is flatter — call it a mix of general risk aversion, geo-political #Russia- #Ukraine) concerns, and worries about growth falling victim to a #Fed monetary policy mistake.
Some people are using “meltdown” to describe the recent price action, particularly the #NASDAQ . Yes, the recent pullback has seemed sudden and sharp. Yes, it has erased much of the gain of the last 12 months. But, per the third chart, the multi-year returns are still substantial.
An @FT compare and contrast of #investment performance since the outbreak of Covid. Speaks also to a larger growth/value theme. #markets #investing #investors #stocks @ARKInvest @berkshirehathaway #ARK
While notably dispersed, analysts’ views of Fed policy adjustments continue to trend more hawkish—and understandably so given how slow the Fed has been in understanding and reacting to #inflation Highlights the urgent need for the Fed to regain the policy narrative More to follow
@WSJ on continuing pressure on supply and, in particular, food production and distribution, which is likely to result in further upward pressures on prices…that have already surged and hit the most vulnerable segments of the population particularly hard
If you have a few minutes, may I please ask you to read this (link below)? This is only the second time since I've been tweeting that I make such an ask...and do so because,by being informed about what's ahead, we stand a better chance of responding better
It's official and it's serious: The United States is now running a 7% #inflation , the highest in 39 years; Annual inflation is still accelerating and will remain high for the next few months; This hurts most the more vulnerable segments of the population; and It was avoidable 1/2
Worry for #Turkey is that this week's sharp #currency depreciation will fuel a vicious cycle of increased dollarization and worsening corporate currency mismatches. This would lead to further Lira weakness. With that, inflation goes even higher, hitting the poor particularly hard
What if it's not just the risk of "zombie companies" eroding the productivity and dynamism of the economy...but also zombie #markets mis-pricing risk/mis-allocating capital due to heavy official intervention? There are better ways to help people and minimize future hits to growth
@warrenbuffet on Why he's not buying stocks in size: sensitivity to tail events and the '08 reminder "we don't see all the problems the first day." On whether others should buy now: Only if you expect to hold for a long time and are financially and psychologically ready to do so
The strong get stronger and the rich get richer while the weak get weaker and the poor struggle more. A larger disparity of wealth is one of the many awful outcomes of the #covid economic shock, a great unequalizer which is also worsening the inequality of opportunity and income.
No respite for the currency in #Turkey …now with a 16 handle in the midst of a disorderly depreciation. With market doubts Re the sustainability of central bank fx intervention and unless internal opposition to rate hikes eases, the possibility of capital controls is increasing