Charlie Bilello

Charlie Bilello


Investor. Writer. Reader. Thinker. Building something new.

352122 followers  •  117 follow  •    •  

The ARK Innovation ETF is now down over 50% from its high last February. $ARKK Charting via @ycharts 

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Global Central Bank Update: -South Korea hiked rates for the 3rd time in the last year, 25 bps increase to 1.25%.

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The Omicron wave in New York has peaked and the rest of the country will soon follow. It only gets better from here. 🙏

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The temptation to borrow, spend, & increase the supply of money is as old as time. All countries are drawn to do it eventually as the short-term effects seem to only be positive (economic boom, rising stock market, etc.). Only with the passage of time are the true costs revealed.

The move down in covid is likely to be swift, as gatherings decline in January and so many people were infected during the current wave. We're seeing that in the UK where new cases are already down 30% from their peak on Jan 5. Expect this trend to continue.

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How fast are infections rising during the current wave? US is averaging 800k reported new cases per day over the last week. The actual number of infections is likely at least 4x that number (3.2 million). That means about 1% of the population infected every day, 7% in a week.

My estimate: by the end of the month, 3/4 Americans will have had covid-19 at some point. Of the remaining 1/4, 75% have 1 or more doses of the vaccine. The combination of vaccine + natural immunity will hopefully lead to a continued decline in severity in subsequent waves.

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Total Returns over the last 10 Years... Bitcoin $BTC: +994,608% Tesla $TSLA: +15,200% NVIDIA $NVDA: +6,053% Netflix $NFLX: +2,337% Amazon $AMZN: +1,427% Microsoft $MSFT: +1,280% Apple $AAPL: +1,112% Google $GOOGL: +937% S&P 500 $SPY: +344% Bonds $AGG: +35% Gold $GLD: -6% Next 10?

Price increases over last yr (CPI report)... Gasoline: +42.7% Used Cars: +31.9% Gas Utilities: +21% New Cars: +7.6% Overall CPI: +5.3% Electricity: +5.2% Food away from home: +4.7% Transportation: +4.6% Apparel: +4.2% Food at home: +3.0% Shelter: +2.8% Medical care service: +1.0%

% below 2021 high... Ethereum $ETH: -38% Binance $BNB: -39% Terra $LUNA: -41% Bitcoin $BTC: -42% Avalanche $AVAX: -47% Solana $SOL: -50% Chainlink $LINK: -50% Crypto. com $CRO: -56% Polkadot $DOT: -59% Cardano $ADA: -64% XRP $XRP: -64% Shiba Inu $SHIB: -65% Dogecoin $DOGE: -81%

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