Econ reporter @nytimes. ex @fivethirtyeight @WSJ. Adjunct @newmarkjschool. He/him firstname.lastname@example.org @email@example.com Photo: Earl Wilson/NY
Gas prices have been rising again recently. But they're still down from their peak a few months ago, and they're no longer putting the kind of insane upward pressure on headline inflation that they were in the spring.
Rents rose 0.7% in October, a modest slowdown from September. Over the past three months, rents have been rising at an annual rate of 9.5%. We've been waiting for rental inflation to cool based on private data, but we'll need more data to say that turning point is here.
Inflation has taken a big bite out of wage growth. Hourly earnings are down 2.8% over the past year after adjusting for inflation. But the recent cooldown in headline inflation is helping: Real earnings basically flat over the past three months, and up slightly for non-managers.
Importantly, aggregate earnings -- factoring in wage growth AND job growth -- is still modestly outpacing inflation. That helps explain how consumer spending can keep rising in real terms even as real wages fall.
Last year, @WhiteHouseCEA published charts showing how pandemic disruptions were driving inflation. That's much less true now, as gas and rents play a bigger role.
U.S. employers added 528k jobs in July, far more than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching its prepandemic level (a 50-year low). Data: Full coverage:
Surveys show most Americans don't believe they got a tax cut under the 2017 tax law. But most of them did (and hardly anyone paid more under the law).
Most Americans -- regardless of income -- got a tax cut last year. Yet most Americans don't believe it. and I explore why.
Consumer prices rose 1.3% in June, and were up 9.1% from a year earlier, the fastest year-over-year rate of inflation since 1981. Excluding volatile food and energy, prices were up 0.7% from May, an unexpected acceleration. Full data: