Ben Casselman

Ben Casselman


Econ reporter @nytimes. ex @fivethirtyeight @WSJ. Adjunct @newmarkjschool. He/him ben.casselman@nytimes.com @bencasselman@mastodon.world Photo: Earl Wilson/NY

72127 followers  •  3000 follow  •    •   https://www.nytimes.com/by/ben-casselman

Gas prices have been rising again recently. But they're still down from their peak a few months ago, and they're no longer putting the kind of insane upward pressure on headline inflation that they were in the spring.

Rents rose 0.7% in October, a modest slowdown from September. Over the past three months, rents have been rising at an annual rate of 9.5%. We've been waiting for rental inflation to cool based on private data, but we'll need more data to say that turning point is here.

Inflation has taken a big bite out of wage growth. Hourly earnings are down 2.8% over the past year after adjusting for inflation. But the recent cooldown in headline inflation is helping: Real earnings basically flat over the past three months, and up slightly for non-managers.

Importantly, aggregate earnings -- factoring in wage growth AND job growth -- is still modestly outpacing inflation. That helps explain how consumer spending can keep rising in real terms even as real wages fall.

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Last year, @WhiteHouseCEA  published charts showing how pandemic disruptions were driving inflation. That's much less true now, as gas and rents play a bigger role.

This is not, of course, to deny the experience of people who have NOT found Twitter as welcoming, or who have had profoundly negative interactions on here. I'm aware of how fortunate I've been in that regard.

I really will miss this website.

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I remain pretty skeptical that Mastodon (or anywhere else) can recreate what I found valuable about Twitter. But in the spirit of experimentation, I'm @bencasselman @mastodon.world.

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U.S. employers added 528k jobs in July, far more than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching its prepandemic level (a 50-year low). Data: Full coverage:

Surveys show most Americans don't believe they got a tax cut under the 2017 tax law. But most of them did (and hardly anyone paid more under the law).

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Two hours after polls are meant to open in #Brooklyn  and our polling place isn't ready. #NYPrimary 

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This is just breathtakingly irresponsible.

::Two weeks later:: "Who knew tax reform could be so complicated?"

Honestly jealous of all the people about to discover "A Wrinkle in Time."

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Most Americans -- regardless of income -- got a tax cut last year. Yet most Americans don't believe it. and I explore why.

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Consumer prices rose 1.3% in June, and were up 9.1% from a year earlier, the fastest year-over-year rate of inflation since 1981. Excluding volatile food and energy, prices were up 0.7% from May, an unexpected acceleration. Full data:

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