Amy Walter

Amy Walter

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cycling enthusiast. Lover of all things summer.

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NEW: @CookPolitical . First HOUSE ratings of ‘24 cycle. @Redistrict  rates 23 Dem and 19 by Rep as Toss Ups. Best thing going for Rs - potential map redraws in OH/NC. Best thing for Ds: 18 R’s in Biden seats.

Digging through some old @CookPolitical  files and found this gem from Dec. of 1999.

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Challenge of bipartisanship is that priorities of R’s and D’s are not same. In Jan. 2011, @pewresearch  found D’s/R’s agreed on 3 of top 4 issues that Congress/POTUS should address. Today, it’s just 1 of 4. Even on that issue (economy), gap in intensity of priority is 16 pts.

GOP voters want a fighter. But, which kind will they choose? Nikki Haley hoping that she can appeal to primary voters as “happy warrior” instead of culture warrior. Fighting style that can attract new voters, not one that alienates them. My take from CHS:

Teen’s critique after every episode of @TheLastofUsTV  : “Not enough zombies.”

Lots of chatter about the danger of R’s following same ‘16 playbook by not engaging Trump. But, that assumes that: 1) Trump’s personal attacks on “Sanctimonious”/“Meatball” will work against an R more popular w/ base than Jeb or Cruz were; and..


Lotta interesting data in the new NBC poll, most of it quite grim for Biden and Dems. This also jumped out: by a margin of 65% to 35%, parents more concerned about their child missing out on education than getting COVID at in-person school.

Trump’s attacks on vote by mail aren’t meant to dissuade people from voting (in fact his campaign and other Rs are actively engaged in VBM organizing): it’s about sowing doubt about legitimacy of certain types of voters. Rural VBM = ok. Urban = illegitimate.

Reminder that Trump won CO-03, Rep. Boebert’s seat - w/ just 51.5%. This is not a safe seat like that of Gohmert or Taylor-Green or Mo Brooks.

Best performing Ds this cycle: 1. Sinema (so far): 106% of ‘16 Clinton showing. 2. Beto - 104% 3. Abrams - 104% 4. Wolf (PA)- 100% 5. Whitmer (MI) - 99%

If true, SCOTUS decision will be most acutely felt in GOV races in battleground states like AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI. May not have similar impact at federal level, but each/every state will now get to set its own rules on abortion access. Uncharted territory politically.

In the last four midterm elections, the ‘out’ party has won independent voters by double digits. Exit polls show Democrats winning indies by 1 pt. 49/48. This is why things are so close.