Lotta interesting data in the new NBC poll, most of it quite grim for Biden and Dems. This also jumped out: by a margin of 65% to 35%, parents more concerned about their child missing out on education than getting COVID at in-person school.

Trump’s attacks on vote by mail aren’t meant to dissuade people from voting (in fact his campaign and other Rs are actively engaged in VBM organizing): it’s about sowing doubt about legitimacy of certain types of voters. Rural VBM = ok. Urban = illegitimate.

Reminder that Trump won CO-03, Rep. Boebert’s seat - w/ just 51.5%. This is not a safe seat like that of Gohmert or Taylor-Green or Mo Brooks.

Best performing Ds this cycle: 1. Sinema (so far): 106% of ‘16 Clinton showing. 2. Beto - 104% 3. Abrams - 104% 4. Wolf (PA)- 100% 5. Whitmer (MI) - 99%

If true, SCOTUS decision will be most acutely felt in GOV races in battleground states like AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI. May not have similar impact at federal level, but each/every state will now get to set its own rules on abortion access. Uncharted territory politically.

In the last four midterm elections, the ‘out’ party has won independent voters by double digits. Exit polls show Democrats winning indies by 1 pt. 49/48. This is why things are so close.