Ed Conway

Ed Conway


Numbers guy. Likes charts. Occasionally makes mistake of deploying irony on Twitter. Subscribe to newsletter: http://www.edmundconway.com Email ed.conway@sky.uk

187392 followers  •  1108 follow  •    •   http://www.edmundconway.com

And that means bidding higher prices than Europe. Which means that in much the same way as it had LOWER wholesale prices than Europe in summer, the UK could have much HIGHER prices than Europe this winter. Indeed, UK prices are no longer cheaper. It's already happening...

tweet picture

If UK has LOADS of LNG tankers coming in, then it'll probably be ok (unless it gets REALLY cold in which case Nat Grid would begin asking industrial sites to stop taking gas, but many of them can't really stop v easily). If not, then it'll need to bid in gas over the pipeline.

The short answer is no-one really knows. But this economic/energy geography could be a defining feature of the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia cut off further gas flows going via Ukraine. That means Germany, Slovakia etc are suddenly desperately short of energy...

The bad news is we have to do this all over again next summer: replenish Europe's storage etc, do the land bridge thing etc. But this time around, without any Russian gas to help fill storage. Meaning it's doubly difficult. It's NEXT winter most energy analysts are worried about!

Here's my full article on this for @skynews . The Small pipeline playing an outsize role in the energy crisis

We covered some of this 👆 yesterday on @skynews  btw. Here's a video with lots and lots more charts, maps etc

And here are the flows of gas coming via the BBL pipeline into the UK this morning. As I say above, still quite small & there’s still gas flowing the other way via the other pipeline (Interconnector). But a sign of things to come. We’ll be reliant on these flows in coming months.

tweet picture

Loading
Loading

🚨NEW🚨 On the @bankofengland  intervention: Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock. Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.

🧵 Something seriously odd is afoot in natural gas markets. There's a BIG glut of gas in the UK. Wholesale gas prices are the lowest in 18 months. There is so much gas no-one is quite sure what to do with it Yet far from falling, household gas bills are heading even higher. 👇

🚨NEW 🚨 Bank of England says UK households must brace themselves for the biggest annual fall in their standard of living since comparable records began three decades ago, as it: - Raises interest rates to 0.5% - Says inflation will surpass 7% - Slashes GDP forecast

🧵RISING INTEREST RATES ARE A BIGGER DEAL THAN YOU MIGHT THINK🧵 This is important (hence the caps). I’m a bit worried people are being WAY too complacent about rising interest rates. They assume that because they’re so low now vs the 1990s, this’ll be a walk in the park. NO.

The pound is falling. Fast.

tweet picture

🔋THREAD🔌 The inconvenient truth about climate change is that solving it will involve digging, blasting & leaching more minerals from the skin of this planet than ever before. No one much likes to talk abt this. But talk about it we must. ⛏👇

I was hesitating to post this chart, so depressing is it. The lines here represent excess deaths. No other major European state has excess deaths so far above “normal" levels for the time of yr. In other countries excess mortality is falling. In England it's still rising #COVID19 

tweet picture

You’ll have seen a lot of charts in the past few weeks. But this one REALLY matters. The mortgage burden - the % we spend on our repayments - is heading for the highest level since the late 80s. Last time it hit these levels it preceded the biggest housing crash in modern history

tweet picture

🚨NEW🚨 If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the @OBR_UK ⁩ & @bankofengland ⁩

Gosh Just look at what happened to the pound when @bankofengland  Governor Andrew Bailey told investors its emergency support will definitely end on Friday. "You've got three days left now," he said. "You've got to get this done."

tweet picture

Loading
Loading