Chris Giles

Chris Giles


Economics Editor, FT

145454 followers  •  1217 follow  •    •   https://t.co/PNlY3dM0Qv

The excess deaths not recorded as related to Covid-19 on death certificates are most likely to be due to undiagnosed coronavirus in elderly and frail patients, particularly early in the epidemic 2/

No-deal Brexit holds fewer fears for a Covid-ravaged economy - fewer doesn't mean no fears

@jdportes  @JoMicheIII  @robfordmancs  @dsquareddigestt  @david_colquhounhink  there are 3 things we can say - Jonathan is right that we're almost alone in reporting excess deaths in Europe (Sweden too) - The daily reported data is close to worthless in devising trends and reporting delays in "by date of death " are horrible - There is a long tail

Very good explainer on UK-EU fish talks from @pmdfoster  and @jimbrunsden  (reminder to both sides: fishing accounts for 0.03% of the UK economy, there are more important things at stake) via @FinancialTimes 

@EdConwaySky  @peterjukesD  @ONSo  @NISRAn  @NatRecordsScot ' @NickStripe_ONSt  think this is remotely wrong. England and NI are outliers. Scotland had too much praise for performance only a little better than England's

@peterjukes  @EdConwaySkyU  @ONSK  @NISRA  @NatRecordsScoti  @NickStripe_ONSs  currently top in terms of excess deaths per million. Spain's data is all over the place though

Consumers’ reluctance to spend puts brake on UK recovery via @financialtimes 

There was further evidence of a long tail to the epidemic from Scotland (on Weds) and Northern Ireland (today) where death rates did not return to normal in week 22. Excess deaths are way down. But not eliminated yet by the end of May ENDS

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Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic in the world Free to read article with @jburnmurdoch  1/

NEW: The excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus are likely to be around 41,000 as of yesterday, not the 17,337 of the hospital deaths announcements Here is the explanation for that estimate, which I will update daily 1/

Update: After today's official statistics on deaths linked to coronavirus, a cautious estimate of all UK deaths up to today 05 May stands at 53,800 A significant upward revision 1/

We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delays We had little idea they were 80% too low.... All in guts of todays @ONS  statistics

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Update: Following the latest hospital figures for the number of people who have died after testing positive for coronavirus, a cautious estimate of the UK excess deaths linked to the outbreak is 50,200 some methodology follows 1/

Today, after shockingly high @ONS  death figures, a cautious estimate of the number of UK people who have died directly or indirectly due to the coronavirus pandemic is 46,000 There have been significant upward revisions today, which I will explain 1/

The ONS numbers are as bad - in fact worse - that I had expected. This level of excess deaths in England & Wales since the coronavirus outbreak started is 27,015 Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when equivalent hospital number was 13,423

The @FinancialTimes  never* calls for heads to roll in editorials. It is a policy* * broken today

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Update, following today's official @ONS  data of total deaths, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths up to 12 May is 59,700 Of these 51,000 have happened and 8,700 are estimates bringing the official data up to date using evidence from hospitals 1/

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