Chris Giles

Chris Giles

Economics Editor, FT

154561 followers  •  1425 follow  •    •

Northern Ireland economy has outperformed rest of UK, ONS figures show

Here @ONS  confidently asset "no exodus" from UK in 2020 It might well be right, but, it is difficult to conclude ONS is right when it has this rather large assumption in the data

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What the ‘big quit’ tells us about inflation What I find that is really interesting and difference between chosing to change employer and choosing not to work any longer

This, from @RobinBHarding  is as good and provative as you'd expect Asia is the global inflation exception

@ONS  These are experimental new rapid regional national accounts from @ONS  with large confidence intervals. There has to be a question whether they should be published....but it is a question people want to know the answer ... and this is @ONS  best current guess

Omicron’s economic impact expected to be only small, analysts say

@jdportes  @julianHjessopAnd  in economics, we are taught that no one anticipates anything 🤔 But I agree it’s early days and highly uncertain data. You should give us credit for doing the sums though …

OECD warns Omicron may intensify supply shortages and inflation

I like the fact that the word "transitory" was transitory


Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic in the world Free to read article with @jburnmurdoch  1/

NEW: The excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus are likely to be around 41,000 as of yesterday, not the 17,337 of the hospital deaths announcements Here is the explanation for that estimate, which I will update daily 1/

🚨🚨Nerd alert: Sunak has told his independent* fiscal watchdog to use out of date data for the Budget forecast It’ll guarantee a big upgrade in level of UK output in next year’s Budget, just in time for the election *doesn’t feel so independent today

Update: After today's official statistics on deaths linked to coronavirus, a cautious estimate of all UK deaths up to today 05 May stands at 53,800 A significant upward revision 1/

We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delays We had little idea they were 80% too low.... All in guts of todays @ONS  statistics

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Update: Following the latest hospital figures for the number of people who have died after testing positive for coronavirus, a cautious estimate of the UK excess deaths linked to the outbreak is 50,200 some methodology follows 1/

Today, after shockingly high @ONS  death figures, a cautious estimate of the number of UK people who have died directly or indirectly due to the coronavirus pandemic is 46,000 There have been significant upward revisions today, which I will explain 1/

The ONS numbers are as bad - in fact worse - that I had expected. This level of excess deaths in England & Wales since the coronavirus outbreak started is 27,015 Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when equivalent hospital number was 13,423

Update, following today's official @ONS  data of total deaths, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths up to 12 May is 59,700 Of these 51,000 have happened and 8,700 are estimates bringing the official data up to date using evidence from hospitals 1/

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Update: following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the excess deaths linked to coronavirus up to 6 May is 54,300 Of these 42,700 are official data (facts) 11,600 are estimates based on more up to date hospital records 1/