Five Minute Macro

Five Minute Macro

Macro Trader; tweeting on rates, FX, equities, commods, life's rich roughly that order. Not looking to set the world to rights in 140 characters

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The $250k FDIC limit doesn't really exist; that's just a nice story we tell ourselves to make the world seem fairer and neater than it is - in practice, US deposits are effectively guaranteed without limit. Sorry, kids; there is a Santa Claus (and it's you).

If you're wringing your hands about moral hazard, where have you been for the last 50 years or so?

There were all kinds of good reasons to deal swiftly with SVB, but one side benefit for the authorities of sweeping it swiftly out of the headlines is deflecting awkward questions about how regulators allowed a top 20 US bank to operate such a gonzo business model.

For all the handwringing about the precedent / incentives etc occasioned by BTFP, let's bear in mind that regulatory forbearance has *always* been a key crisis-fighting tool. Precedents are bad, incentives are perverse - we live in a fallen world, and we have to be OK with that.

Usually remain blissfully unaware of who this website's main characters are, but in a moment of weakness, decided to Google who tf is this twerp, and now I want to know what this is a euphemism for: 'Calacanis also added that he has "played ping pong with Ghislaine Maxwell once"'

I'm as anti-moral hazard as the next cat on the internet, but you have to take the world as it is in this business, not as you'd like it to be. Otherwise, you end up writing green ink client letters about how your underperformance is all the Fed's fault.

Judging by today's fixed income price action , BTFP stands for Buy The Pivot.

It's shocking to me that people who sling around billions of dollars seemingly have no idea what a bank does. They're only at the nexus of the entire financial system, guys, no biggie.

It's a nice theory because it plays into our prejudices about this website's absolute worst characters, but no, I don't believe VC podcast thought leaders posting in all caps could or would move the needle on any bank runs.

The economics of Substack completely baffle me. I'm not going to pay $100 a year to read your blog - I could get a decent newspaper subscription for the same price (or less!).


Everybody wants Elon Musk to be forced to buy Twitter, but nobody wants him to actually buy Twitter - quite the paradox.

Crypto guys on the way up: future of money, fiat is toast, have fun staying poor. Crypto guys on the way down: maybe allocate 1% of your net worth to this daring experiment.

Every US fund manager you'll ever meet in your life:

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The Turkish Lira has crashed through the interest rate lobby right into debasement.

You can have the strongest intellectual arguments for buying Argentina century bonds at issue, wielding the finest bond maths known to science. Regardless, when they call in the IMF less than a year later, you will be laughed at. Those are the rules; I don't make them up.

US has a vaccine export ban. UK is implementing a de facto ban. However, EU contemplating an export ban vindicates everyone's hackneyed views on the EU. Anglophone commentators disproportionately shape narratives of the EU, which is often amusing but currently a bit depressing.

Watching European gas prices every day is like being in the worst face-ripping trade of your life without the ability to take a a societal level. Just sickening.

If the market's going to rally every time Trump rows back on some ludicrous campaigning point, there's no limit to where we could end up.