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The whole thing just shows how absolutely lost and rudderless people get when trying to assume a non-Phillips Curve world

PRODUCTIVITY! | "This note argues that these factors, especially slower productivity growth and lower natural rates of unemployment, can explain much of the weakness of wage growth and the apparent breakdown of the simple wage Phillips curve."

Our blog takes a look at the Phillips curve, which refers to an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation

Peter Jorgensen and Kevin J. Lansing: Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve : 'Conventional versions of the Phillips curve cannot account for inflation dynamics during and after the U.S. Great Recession,...

Working paper: A Phillips curve for the euro area

Phillips curve remains a valid model to explain inflation in eurozone – ECB

A timely @ecb  paper on the € Phillips curve, using a less volatile core measure (weighted median of industry inflation rates), concluding that the PC is still alive and driven by 1) expectations, 2) the (OECD) output gap, 3) headline second-round effects.

Will new a record low in the #Unemployment  rate coupled with a #productivity  induced acceleration in wages awaken in the Phillips Curve beast from its slumber? @federalreserve  policy remains an ongoing risk to outlook

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After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @Ocasio2018  follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips Curve, and the idea that unemployment could be much lower without inflationary worries.

For more on how economists are taking a serious, critical reexamination of the Phillips Curve and the idea of NAIRU, see this:

@Ocasio2018  asking Powell whether estimates of long-term unemployment rate were too high. "Absolutely," he says. Now asking about Phillips Curve. Really strong questions from both sides of the aisle in this hearing.

The death of the Phillips curve in one chart: While unemployment rate in the Eurozone has dropped to 7.8% in Jan, the lowest since Sep2008, core inflation has also fallen, contrary to the theory of the Phillips curve.

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Curves, ranked: 1. Supply curve 2. Demand curve 3. Yield curve 4. IS curve 5. Beveridge curve 6. Reaction function 7. Indifference curve 8. Contract curve 9. Phillips curve 10. J curve

The "natrual rate of unemployment" is an academic concept that does not exist in the real world. It's a unicorn like the Phillips Curve and r*. Also, the low labor force participation rate makes unemployment rate meaningless. Finally, the Fed has no idea what they're doing.

Inflation v. unemployment for 31-countries, and by jingo, it's hard to see a Phillips Curve.

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Central banker on the left believes in tooth fairies, unicorns and a Phillips Curve. Central banker on the right just bought 16 tons of gold

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