Tracy Alloway

Tracy Alloway


Journalist at Bloomberg. London➡New York➡Abu Dhabi➡Hong Kong. I like forensic accounting, financial crisis hindsight, and kittens. Ex-FT Alphaville and FT.

83891 followers  •  3840 follow  •    •   https://t.co/JPeVinrgwW

New Odd Lots! If you're interested in what's going on in commercial real estate right now (i.e. mayhem), then you'll want to listen to this. @TheStalwart  and I talk to @TomBarrackJr  about what's going on in a hugely important part of the US economy.

Investors who were overweight cash:

What a mess in the commercial real estate market. You can't just agree to skip three months rent. All this forbearance is going to take time & paperwork and by the time you've agreed on something the loan will probably have been transferred to special servicing already anyway.

Reopening the leveraged loan market and paying for the privilege with a 15% yield. by @dscigliuzzo 

New paper from @IvanWerning  looks at whether the coronavirus supply shock will morph into a demand shock and kinda turns standard perceptions of stimulus on its head. Fiscal might be less effective than usual, while monetary easing can have bigger impact.

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Jim Grant talking on the relationship between credit and the big market selloff is free to read and definitely worth it. "The back story to today’s bear market in nearly everything was the decade-long boom in credit." via @GrantsPub 

Here's where I remind you that a big chunk of the banking system still runs on COBOL, a programming language that dates to the 1950s. There aren't a lot of programmers around now who are familiar with it, and those that are can command big $$$ at the banks.

Didn't realise the front-end of the muni bond curve inverted last month. Is that the first time ever?

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For the first time in history, the entire U.S. Treasury curve is below 1%. by & @StephenSpratt  @Ruth_Liew10 

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There's nothing like seeing a fellow journalist buy 5,000+ Twitter followers to make you wonder what the point of this platform actually is.

The New York Fed's recession indicator is now at its highest since 2008.

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We're in the midst of the longest bull run for stocks without a major drop on record. Via Goldman:

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COVID-19 cases are picking up in Hong Kong. This is not good for many reasons, but a big one is that it means places are likely to see multiple waves of infection (& containment efforts) as the virus ricochets back and forth around the globe.

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In Wuhan, families of coronavirus victims were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at local funeral homes beginning this week. Long lines and stacks of urns are spurring questions about the true scale of casualties.

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Absolutely stunning moves in mortgage bonds. This bond comprised of Alt-A home loans originated by Citi went from trading above par to trading at 70 cents on the dollar in *less than 3 weeks* and it's not the only one.

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