Nassim Nicholas Tale

Nassim Nicholas Tale

Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.

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#LEBANON , in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank.

4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage!

Localism is the intelligent form of anarchism.

Just deleted what I suspect to be false news.

Same with #Lebanon  driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile 

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3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power.

7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage.


Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, "unforeseen outcomes". When will IYIs learn that we don't understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism?

ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb.

For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn't work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn't exist.

When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant.

1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame 

I came as refugee from the Lebanese war, embraced American values,& vowed to defend them. I refuse immigrants who don't embrace our values.

In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social "science" and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.