NBER

NBER


The National Bureau of Economic Research is dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

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Characterizing conditions forchaotic behavior in dynamic political equilibria in a simple model of environmental protection, from @m_battaglini 

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Plausible deniability gives rise to risk premia in asset markets, from Kerry Back, Bruce I. Carlin, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

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A proposal to improve measures of disclosures of government funding of drug research for consideration in discussions of reducing prices of funded drugs,, from Maya M. Durvasula, @PatentScholar , and Heidi L. Williams

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A new look at the "common ownership" hypothesis finds no evidence that overlapping shareholder positions leads to higher prices in ready-to-eat cereal, from Matthew Backus, @conlon_chris , and @MSinkinson 

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A review of the demand for racial segregation that motivated both segregation and comprehensive zoning ordinances in American cities, from @econhist_allday , Tate Twinam, and @econtrout 

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As geographic fragmentation costs fall, both a theory and empirical analysis show that concentration and regional specialization fall for sectors and rise for occupations , from Antoine Gervais, James R. Markusen, and Anthony J. Venables

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Approaches for testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit rational expectations that take into account information about higher moments of individual belief distributions, from Thomas Crossley, Yifan Gong, Todd R. Stinebrickner, and Ralph Stinebrickner

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Women and minorities’ employment disadvantage from COVID-19 was short-lived except for Blacks, who in fact lost fewer jobs initially but are recovering more slowly than others, from Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Minsung Park, and Yongseok Shin

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A significant share of R&D investment that is geared toward developing drugs for the elderly increases social welfare but not necessarily productivity and growth, from Efraim Benmelech, Janice C. Eberly, Joshua L. Krieger, and Dimitris Papanikolaou

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Aggregate debt forebearance during the pandemic flows more to higher-income individuals, while forebearance rates are higher among those with lower credit scores and incomes. Susan Cherry, Erica Xuewei Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru

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Randomized control trials (RCT) have no special standing among econometric methods. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. They often carry serious and inadequately addressed ethical issues, from Angus Deaton

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In U.S. Presidential races, the popular-vote winner will lose 40% of elections decided by 2 million votes or less. Electoral College "inversions" have been likely since the 1800s, from @MikeGeruso , Dean Spears, and Ishaana Talesara

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2020 NBER Summer Institute, July 6-25, will be live-streamed on the NBER's YouTube channel. Meeting schedule here URLs for the streams are assigned at the start of each meeting, and will be posted as soon as they are available here

Economics undergraduate students are more gender-biased than those in other fields. The gap becomes larger with increased exposure to economics training, especially for male students, from Valentina A. Paredes, @DanielePaserman , and @franciscopino 

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Large randomized experiment in Kenya shows positive effects of cash transfers, but not of a psychotherapy program, on psychological and economic outcomes, from @jhaushofer , Robert Mudida, and @jeremypshapiro 

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Shutdown orders had only modest effects on the economy. Businesses on opposite sides of borders with different shutdown policies fell similarly. Instead, consumer fear seems to have driven the declines, from @Austan_Goolsbee  and Chad Syverson

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Nursing homes account for nearly half of US COVID-19 deaths; eliminating staff linkages between homes could reduce COVID-19 infections in homes by 44 percent, from @MKeithChen , @judy_chevalier , and Elisa F. Long

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Between 1978 and 2018, the share of pre-tax income earned by the top 1% rose from 10% to about 19% and the share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% rose from 7% to about 18%, from Emmanuel Saez and @gabriel_zucman 

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All new and upcoming NBER Working Papers relating to the coronavirus are to be available free of charge, including three new papers released this week: , , and

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Is it economics or culture? How globalization spurs right-wing populism, from @rodrikdani 

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