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  2. Frederik Ducrozet
22,336 followers   •   1,854 following   •   Switzerland   •  
Market Economist, ECB Watcher - all opinions are mine and RT does not mean endorsement...

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Benoît Coeuré, in Challenges, "doesn't rule out any possibility" as far as he's concerned. #teamCoeuré #icymi https://t.co/7FKvRNIW9b
Euro area IP down 1.7% MoM in November, and -0.9% QoQ in Q4 2018 (worst quarter in six years, so far).
Industrial output in November:
France -1.3% MoM
Germany -1.9% MoM
Italy -1.6% MoM
Spain -1.5% MoM
Hot take: next week's euro area IP report will be horrible.
The @banquedefrance business survey unexpectedly rose in December, consistent with +0.2% GDP growth in Q4 and stronger activity in the auto and services sectors going into 2019. Bending but not breaking.
Another small hint in today's ECB accounts: "a remark was made that [...] the financial risks associated with the CSPP were somewhat more pronounced than those of the other programmes". If the ECB is forced to do more, credit easing should be a priority.
ECB accounts: "Looking ahead, the suggestion was made to revisit the contribution of targeted longer-term refinancing operations to the monetary policy stance." #TLTROiscoming https://t.co/yXXfcK02Ks
So the Fed has the capacity and flexibility to *not* adjust policy rates. Amazing stuff.
Euro area unemployment is:
- below 8% for the first time in 10 years
- below NAIRU estimates (to be revised lower)
- below ECB staff projections (to be revised lower)
- a lagging indicator, likely to fall at a slower pace in 2019
- not that different from the US with a 3-year lag
I wonder what caused this collapse in French consumers' purchase intentions.
What is the opposite of contagion, dissociação?
Total(1) => 0.11002707481384 f_f_QM(2) => 0.094910621643066 indS(2) => 0.054219961166382 indM(2) => 0.034512758255005 indM_1(2) => 0.0034670829772949 indM_2(2) => 0.00076770782470703 indM_4(2) => 0.0037398338317871 indM_5(2) => 0.0027058124542236 indM_6(2) => 0.0012409687042236 indM_7(2) => 0.0046486854553223 indM_8(2) => 0.0013623237609863 indM_9(2) => 0.0085499286651611 indM_10(2) => 0.0077171325683594 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.0021891593933105 f_f_dT(20) => 0.0020222663879395