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I'm @SkyNews Political Editor, economic crisis book @theDefaultLine Brexitologist. United ST holder. purveyor of bad jokes.

Latest Scoops

Treasury knows minority Gov needing fiscal space to keep Commons on side, cant risk discretionary fiscal shock =multi-year Brexit transition
The figures are all real, up to date, best measures we have of the economy... I suppose we could just switch the digits round
@wild_ted Yes mentioned in Commission, Council & Parliament documentation, only after final destination outline agreed, let alone rights, exit bill
@RossMatthewman7 ...depends on whether you think what matters most is forecast of the losing side (last yr political battle), or what's empirically occurring
... clearly UK growth is better relatively than dire Treasury referendum projection, but is notably worse relative to last year & Europe
Ie there'll be no "we're the fastest growing economy in the EU/G7/ industrialised econ" lines in the October conference speeches as last yr
...correct to say 1 quarterly number could be blip (eg UK Q1 -0.2) unarguable now after 2, EU27 nations much stronger growth than UK in 2017
.. 2017 growth numbers (H1) so far:
Austria: 1.5%, Spain: 1.7%, Sweden: 2.1%, France: 1.0%.
Germany estimated at 1.2%+

UK: 0.5%
How has this changed so quickly?
GDP this morning confirming France, Spain, Austria, Sweden growing 2-4 times faster that UK so far in 2017
Treasury winning argument in Cabinet on a 2-3 year "off the shelf" transition till 2022... or at least asking for that in negotiations...
Sterling vs dollar back now at level pre PM's conference Speech - 10 month high ... still well down on pre EUref.. & vs € still well down
After the election, industry asserting itself on Brexit.. and why "pain is information". Sky Views: https://t.co/N0GmrXQQU5
As interesting, is that the Car industry seems to be very willing now to get firmly stuck into the debate on BRexit plan, post-election...
... there are other factors weighing on demand though, such as the change in vehicle tax and the shift away from diesels..
..Car industry defines as interim solution inside customs union & single market...not ruling out longer term solution. Not current Govt plan
SMMT chief Hawes: "govt been in "listening" mode, now it must put on table concrete plans that will assure future competiveness of sector".
Despite hi profile investments, total investment in UK car industry is sharply down this yr. SMMT chief: "Brexit uncertainty not helping"..
UK car makers see slide in UK car production - down 13.7% in June, 2.9% this year so far, now likely to miss 2m production target for 2020..
worth noting Britain makes 1.2 million internal combustion engines a year, mostly for export. No mass production of electric drive trains.
Wrong. Sorry, WRONG! £96bn exports, £60bn imports, while we're in the EU.
Total(1) => 0.88545203208923 f_u_GLN(2) => 0.87918901443481 f_f_QM(2) => 0.71008706092834 indS(2) => 0.066757917404175 indM(2) => 0.0278639793396 indM_1(2) => 0.0053520202636719 indM_2(2) => 0.0011799335479736 indM_4(2) => 0.0049118995666504 indM_5(2) => 0.0045359134674072 indM_6(2) => 0.0020229816436768 indM_7(2) => 0.003774881362915 indM_8(2) => 0.0013940334320068 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.050640106201172 f_f_dT(40) => 0.04792857170105