Bond Vigilantes

Bond Vigilantes


Commentary on bond markets by M&G's retail bond team for Investment Professionals only. No other persons should rely on this information.

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New post - “Angrynomics” by Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth: interview with the authors

US breakeven inflation rates (as measured by the difference between TIPS and nominal yields, and used as a market proxy for inflation expectations) have risen from 0.2% per year over the next 5 years at their March low, to 1.23% now.

According to RBC, 61% of all US election bets in the last day have involved @ye . If Kanye runs, is he a Nader (taking Biden votes) or a Perot (taking Bush votes)? Anyway, he's 50/1to win. Not sure what Clinton & Pence are doing in there.

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Strongest UK Broad Money growth since 1528 (via Jefferies). Not sure what happened that year except Wikipedia talks of "The fourth major outbreak of the sweating sickness occurs in England. This time the disease also spreads to northern Europe." Also wars vs Holy Roman Empire.

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COVID-19 related of course, but these Japanese wage numbers are very weak, and were already falling in 2019, pre-virus. Chart from GS.

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I'm not convinced this pub landlord understands the psychological reasoning behind shops ending prices with 99p.

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The @ECB  explanation of why central banks can’t become insolvent is very similar to that in the Monopoly rules.

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If you saw the tweet about inventory of new unsold homes reaching 7 months, you should worry. Historically that level is consistent with GDP growth of zero. This chart’s from our 2007 blog.

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The Great British Pound now trades like an emerging market currency.

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Central banks now own almost $15,000,000,000,000 in assets (39% of GDP).

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Banco Popular to be sold to Santander. AT1 collapses by 90%, senior debt rallies. Not all debt created equal.

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German bond yields are negative out to 5 years, it’s becoming fiscally irresponsible to run a budget surplus

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US banks have the largest exposure to Greek banks at around $11.8bn, followed by UK ($8.4bn) and Germany ($5.0bn)

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Michael J Fox would be shocked to see Fed Funds at 0% - when he set off they were 8%! #cynical  #BackToTheFuture 

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For bond investors: Debt $20,000,000,000,000 caps for sale. Only $60bn of US debt to go.

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