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Adam Tooze
History, economics, politics, theory. Prof. Columbia University. Director of the European Institute. Born UK, raised FRG. Mensch mit Migrationshintergrund.
Comparing the COVID-19 stimuli is difficult due to different types of spending. This is a sophisticated & well-documented effort by @Bruegel_org team as of 26/3 US direct spending largest Germany has largest overall Spain particularly constrained
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It was not long ago that many of us worried that Trump’s admin and Congressional GOP would obstruct global stabilization role of the Fed. In light of the last three weeks of dramatic action that seems almost quaint @gilliantett spot on.
This report on the situation in NYC’s hospitals makes hard reading. But here is the killer line. AT THIS POINT they are beginning to think about organizing all the hospitals as ONE network. Only now, at this point in the crisis!
The recovery in consumer confidence has begun in China. But it is more “swoosh” than V-shaped. @GoldmanSachs via @SoberLook
Going up, straight up. US weekly unemp numbers are going to exceed 4.45 m @MorganStanley thinks. Via @SoberLook
Return to trend? @MorganStanley does not expect the US economy to return to trend by the end of 2021. More "tuning forks" than swoosh. Via @SoberLook
“March was like a bomb went off; two bombs, in fact, with the virus and [the oil shock], "central banks have tried to make sure this remains a virus crisis" “We are past peak panic, but not yet at peak pessimism,” Great quotes in this piece!
Analysts cannot rely on tactics used in the 1987 crisis, the post-9/11 markets slump or the 2008 crash to recover after the coronavirus crisis. @RobinWigg
What happens when you impose a lockdown with no notice on an economy of 471m workers, of which 2/3 have no contract, 80% are outside social insurance, 100 m are migrant workers? India is finding out …. @someshjha7 for @bsindia
“Barefoot migration” - Indian gov estimates that in response to lockdown 600,000 migrant workers trekked on foot from Delhi and other major cities to their home villages. @someshjha7 for @bsindia
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"There’s no playbook for this kind of crisis!” … well, now you mention it … What about the 69-page color-coded 2016 NSC document helpfully labeled ... “PLAYBOOK for Early Response to Infectious Disease Threats" @ddiamond @nahaltoosi
Why has Italy proven so much more susceptible to corona epidemic? Fascinating hypothesis of @kuhnmo that problem is number of middle-aged people stuck living at home with parents due to economic stagnation -> more intergenerational transmission which is disastrous with #COVID-19
The US is the only advanced economy in which maternal death rates are rising. US death rates are now higher than those in Russia. Italian death rates are c. 1/9th of those in the US. Can this be right? If it is, why is it not a HUGE public health issue?
When we say that the German car industry is in trouble, we mean 2008 kinda trouble! @yardeni via @SoberLook
14 m laid off due to corona: Can this be correct? If these numbers are even remotely right, it is the most savage shock in economic history and will unleash a spiraling downturn in demand the likes of which we have never seen. The US consumer is still #1 driver of world econ.
Nice breakdown of the $2trn stimulus. Strikingly small share goes directly to public health. $425bn for big business most politically contentious also involves remarkable Fed-Treasury hook-up. @timkmak via @SoberLook
Planes made by Boeing and Airbus aren’t faster than they were in the 1970s, but they are 70% more efficient per passenger and mile. Even long-haul flights now beat cars for fuel efficiency per passenger/mile.
Germany has c. 25,000 intensive care beds equipped with ventilators. France has 5,065 intensive care beds equipped with ventilators. Why does Germany have five times more? All of a sudden this matters! @TobiasBuckFT @davideghiglione
The week the American restaurant business died. You can talk about 1929. You can talk about WWI, WWII. NOTHING ever came close to this kind of shutdown. Huge scarring in a big, visible and very fragile sector. @PantheonMacro via @SoberLook
Well here is an unprecedented scenario: foreign investors are “running” into Chinese sovereign debt whilst Western markets meltdown and US Treasury yields rise.
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