History, economics, politics, theory. Prof. Columbia University. Director of the European Institute. Born UK, raised FRG. Mensch mit Migrationshintergrund.
"Why, then, has the economic damage of such a comparatively mild pandemic been so huge?” @martinwolf_ asks Answer "because it could be.” We are rich "The response to the pandemic is a reflection of economic possibilities and social values today"
Choice in dealing with COVID was "suppression, or trading off deaths against the economy.” Suppression did better in every respect. Those that sacrificed lives have tended to end up with high mortality AND economic costs. INET via @martinwolf_
"Even with highest debt/GDP ratio in decades, cost to UK gov of servicing that debt is lowest since WWII, and falling. So what need is there to make “tough choices” to put public finances on sound footing?” @MESandbu Now is time to focus on recovery!
"Newly developed indicator highlights that corporate sector vulnerabilities have increased to levels last seen during sov debt crisis. Financing risks have not materialised thanks to support measures” @ecb Financial Stability Review is very alarming! See:
Economic emergency: "Not since the second world war has a UK chancellor had to come to the House of Commons and announce such a large downgrade to the outlook for Britain’s economy and public finances.” @ChrisGiles_
Looking at this scatter plot of Covid mortality and GDP loss across EU, rather than a trade off, you might be tempted to say that there were simply some countries that handled the crisis well and others that did not.
UPS and DHL are building football field-sized ‘freezer farm’ for cold storage of Covid-19 vaccine deliveries.
International evidence could hardly be more clear: if you control the virus, spending in restaurants, entertainment venues etc bounces back. If not. It doesn’t. @FT tracker
"There’s no playbook for this kind of crisis!” … well, now you mention it … What about the 69-page color-coded 2016 NSC document helpfully labeled ... “PLAYBOOK for Early Response to Infectious Disease Threats" @ddiamond @nahaltoosi
The US is the only advanced economy in which maternal death rates are rising. US death rates are now higher than those in Russia. Italian death rates are c. 1/9th of those in the US. Can this be right? If it is, why is it not a HUGE public health issue?
The @OECD predictions for GDP collapse are astonishing. Japan hardest hit.