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41,565 followers   •   2,731 following   •   Canberra   •   http://www.thekouk.com

Managing Director of Market Economics, a macroeconomic advisory firm. Advisor to Dun & Bradstreet. Research Fellow Per Capita. Speaker for ODE management.

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Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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aud is now well entrenched below 07000 and there is a tonne of global news driving currency markets for the be
AUD is now well entrenched below 0.7000 and there is a tonne of global news driving currency markets. For the best in the business, have a look at @seandcallow and his take on where to next
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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big shout out to bill evans for the opportunity to get in at better levels on the call for interest rates not
Big shout out to Bill Evans for the opportunity to get in at better levels on the call for interest rates not to fall below 1.0% and then for the possibility of rate hikes in H2 2020.
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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great to see westpac champion bill evans call 075 cash rate at a time i reverse my call amp now see cash botto
Great to see Westpac champion Bill Evans call 0.75% cash rate at a time I reverse my call & now see cash bottom at 1.0%
With a cash rate of 0.90% priced in to late 2019/early 2020, who has the best call?
Upside following Westpac is 15bps. A bottle of red for Bill if he's right
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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change of view on interest rates
Change of view on interest rates
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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house prices still getting crushed via corelogic data with a week to go in may the change month to date sydney
House prices still getting crushed via Corelogic data
With a week to go in May, the change - month to date:

Sydney -0.6% (down 15.1% from peak)
Melbourne -0.2% (-11.1%)
Brisbane -0.3% (-2.2%)
Adelaide -0.1% (-0.6%)
Perth -0.7% (-19.8%)
5 cities -0.4% (approx. -9.7%)
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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on saturday the infamous wilson asset management you know run by tim s relative and destroyer of the franking
On Saturday, the infamous Wilson Asset Management - you know, run by Tim's relative and destroyer of the franking credit reforms - is sponsoring Race 6 at Randwick:
Omen tips:
Ready to Prophet to beat Sweet Victory
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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i was thrilled to be at the grattan forum on intergenerational inequality last night i got a sense young peopl
I was thrilled to be at The Grattan Forum on intergenerational inequality last night
I got a sense young people regret not organising better, like on SSM, to push the case on franking credits & neg gearing
As Danielle Wood noted, these are hugely exacerbating an already wide gap
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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as clients now know i ve changed my interest rate view cuts to 10 are in the bag with pricing who cares which
As clients now know, I've changed my interest rate view
Cuts to 1.0% are in the bag (with pricing, who cares which month), but no longer looking for more. Indeed, there are reasons to look for a reversal in the Q2/3/4 2020 & 2021 OIS: Short 3 years under 1.20%. H2 2020 rate hike
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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interest rate hikes cuts are neither good nor bad budget surpluses deficits are neither good nor bad both are
Interest rate hikes / cuts are neither good nor bad
Budget surpluses / deficits are neither good nor bad
Both are policy tools to be adjusted from time to time in reaction to economic trends; adjust them to sustain economic growth, full employment & to meet the inflation target
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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labors qld problem was to abjectly fail to connect the current high unemployment crap wages housing crash in t
Labor’s QLD problem was to abjectly fail to connect the current high unemployment, crap wages, housing crash in those regions to the current policies of the Coalition, who have been pulling the levers for 6 years

The Most Relevant

Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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the last time labor didn t manage money the australian economy avoided the deep global recession unemployment
The last time "Labor didn't manage money", the Australian economy avoided the deep global recession, unemployment stayed below 6%, wages kept rising and all 3 credit rating agencies awarded the Australian government a AAA credit rating... Just saying
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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when bob hawke won in 1983 gdp growth was 23 yes that is a minus sign unemployment was 100 interest rates were
When Bob Hawke won in 1983, GDP growth was -2.3%; yes that is a minus sign
Unemployment was 10.0%
Interest rates were 10%
Inflation was 11.4%
This was the legacy of John Howard as Treasurer who somehow now claims to be a good economic manager
#auspol
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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the govt borrowed 300 million today to fund 3 weeks of franking credit refunds no wonder govt debt is at a rec
The govt borrowed $300 million TODAY to fund 3 weeks of franking credit refunds. No wonder govt debt is at a record high #LeadersDebate
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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a staggering 137 of the australian labour force is either unemployed or underemployed this is an economic scan
A staggering 13.7% of the Australian labour force is either unemployed or underemployed.
This is an economic scandal
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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by the way the government borrowed 400 million today repaid in 2035 to help cover the cost of refundable frank
By the way, the government borrowed $400 million today, repaid in 2035, to help cover the cost of refundable franking credits - there you go kids - a debt for you to repay in 16 years
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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worth repeating that every dollar of the franking credit refunds is either borrowed adding to govt debt or is
Worth repeating that every dollar of the franking credit refunds is either borrowed adding to govt debt or is taken from health and education #LeadersDebate #auspol
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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can someone show me any research work done that shows the coalition are better economic managers than labor an
Can someone show me any research / work done that shows the Coalition are better economic managers than Labor?
Anyone?
Given no one can, I think it important the media pack stop saying the "Coalition is campaigning on the economy, it's strong point" #auspol
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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top 10 tax to gdp ratios in australias history 2004 05 243 howard 2005 06 243 howard 2000 01 242 howard 2002 0
Top 10 tax to GDP ratios in Australia’s history

2004-05 24.3 Howard
2005-06 24.3 Howard
2000-01 24.2 Howard
2002-03 24.0 Howard
2003-04 24.0 Howard
2006-07 23.8 Howard
2021-22 23.8 Morrison
2007-08 23.7 Howard
2020-21 23.5 Morrison
2019-20 23.3 Morrison
Source: MYEFO
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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i ve have just looked through mr frydenberg s budget papers and yep the current government has delivered zero
I've have just looked through Mr Frydenberg's budget papers - and, yep, the current government has delivered zero budget surpluses. That rounds up to zero. Rounds down to zero... because it is zero
Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk
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cormann not quizzed on basic factual errors when coalition won 2013 election net govt debt was 10 of gdp now 1
Cormann not quizzed on basic factual errors
When Coalition won 2013 election, net govt debt was 10% of GDP, now 18%
Gross debt was $273 billion, now $535 billion
Tax to GDP was 21.5% now 23%
Total(1) => 0.5410168170929 f_f_QM(2) => 0.10557007789612 indS(2) => 0.073790073394775 indM(2) => 0.030004024505615 indM_1(2) => 0.0028731822967529 indM_2(2) => 0.00079607963562012 indM_4(2) => 0.0018742084503174 indM_5(2) => 0.0020129680633545 indM_6(2) => 0.001615047454834 indM_7(2) => 0.0020730495452881 indM_8(2) => 0.0010318756103516 indM_9(2) => 0.0091691017150879 indM_10(2) => 0.008206844329834 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.43227887153625 f_f_dT(20) => 0.43195676803589