Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC https://t.co/17C89y5LIt - https://t.co/ByaEosHXVh
Thanks to our partners at @BECU for letting me talk markets and 2021 with your clients! It was fun!
We just had the first week since November 1929 where every single day of the week saw the S&P 500 close either up or down 4%.
Economy * Record drop in services * Record drop in consumer spending * Record drop industrial production * Record spike in jobless claims * Record drop in regional manufacturing * Record drop in consumer confidence * Record asset purchases from FedStocks * Best month since 1987
Worked on this tonight and it is pretty interesting. How quickly could the S&P 500 recover the 30% loss? Here are all the bear markets since 1950 and how long they all took to recover the losses.
The S&P 500 is up 7.3% since 8/3/20 (3 months before the election). Historically, a strong stock market has been a good sign that the incumbent party would win. In fact, no President has ever lost an election with stocks up >7% the 3 months before the election.
This is wild. When the S&P 500 Index is down >10% in Q1, the rest of the year is up nearly 40% on average.
Tomorrow is officially 3 months before the election. Remember, stocks have a stellar track record at predicting who might win in November. If stocks are up, the incumbent party wins. If down? Incumbent party tends to lose. Been right 87% of the time since the Great Depression.