We just had the first week since November 1929 where every single day of the week saw the S&P 500 close either up or down 4%.

Economy * Record drop in services * Record drop in consumer spending * Record drop industrial production * Record spike in jobless claims * Record drop in regional manufacturing * Record drop in consumer confidence * Record asset purchases from FedStocks * Best month since 1987

Lot of talk how a new bull market started today. Just remember, the ‘73/‘74 bear saw a 20% bounce. ‘01/‘02 bear had 22%, 25%, 24% and 24% rallies before ultimately falling 51%. And the ‘08/‘09 bear saw a 27% rally before falling 56%. We aren’t out of the woods quite yet.

Worked on this tonight and it is pretty interesting. How quickly could the S&P 500 recover the 30% loss? Here are all the bear markets since 1950 and how long they all took to recover the losses.

The S&P 500 is up 7.3% since 8/3/20 (3 months before the election). Historically, a strong stock market has been a good sign that the incumbent party would win. In fact, no President has ever lost an election with stocks up >7% the 3 months before the election.

This is wild. When the S&P 500 Index is down >10% in Q1, the rest of the year is up nearly 40% on average.

Tomorrow is officially 3 months before the election. Remember, stocks have a stellar track record at predicting who might win in November. If stocks are up, the incumbent party wins. If down? Incumbent party tends to lose. Been right 87% of the time since the Great Depression.

So today this all happened: Largest VIX spike ever +115% Dow down 1,175 points, most ever Dow down 4.6%, 112th largest drop since 1896 S&P 500 404 days without a 5% correction over, longest ever S&P 500 403 days of positive YTD returns over, 5th longest ever

What do stocks do when the Democrats control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress? Lower only once the past 6 times and overall doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary.