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Dual-class Human Economist/Bloomberg View writer (lvl 2/13)

Latest Scoops

Noah Smith
Noahpinion
whee aggression is a known side effect of prednisone anyone want to argue about stuff
Whee, aggression is a known side effect of prednisone! https://t.co/pTdEVz8Vek

Anyone want to argue about stuff?
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
if your natural rate falls below zero it could simultaneously be true that a low rates cause low productivity
@lust4learning @kphextwinIf your natural rate falls below zero, it could simultaneously be true that A) low rates cause low productivity growth, and B) raising rates would cause even lower productivity growth plus mass unemployment. So you might just be screwed forever.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 21 minutes
right low rates could have countervailing effects on productivity growth and which one dominates could depend
@lust4learning Right. Low rates could have countervailing effects on productivity growth, and which one dominates could depend on where you are in the cycle. It might be good to let rates "bounce back " quicker after crises...IDK.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 35 minutes
mass unemployment so the decision to keep the zombies alive might have been a good one but zombies might creat
@lust4learning Mass unemployment! So the decision to keep the zombies alive might have been a good one. But zombies might create a tradeoff between stabilization and long-term growth, rather than costless stabilization.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 45 minutes
the case that low rates cause low productivity growth is not yet a slam dunk by any means it s just a hypothes
The case that low rates cause low productivity growth is not yet a slam dunk by any means. It's just a hypothesis with a bit of circumstantial evidence.

But if it's true, it should change the entire way we think about macroeconomic policy.

(end)
https://t.co/NviKZ0zppC
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 46 minutes
and it could mean that the apparent one way downward ratchet of us interest rates could come with long term co
And it could mean that the apparent one-way downward ratchet of U.S. interest rates could come with long-term costs to growth.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 47 minutes
it could also mean that china is headed for a prolonged productivity slowdown even though they tend to use cre
It could also mean that China is headed for a prolonged productivity slowdown, even though they tend to use credit policies as stabilizers rather than interest rates per se:
https://t.co/4FHSyukJcy
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 49 minutes
so if low interest rates do lower productivity growth what does that mean well for one thing it means that the
So if low interest rates DO lower productivity growth, what does that mean?

Well, for one thing, it means that the MMT people who call for permanently zero interest rates could be playing with fire.
https://t.co/5nGylEmUi0
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 51 minutes
and here s some possible micro evidence from france aghion et al claim to show that there s a u shaped relatio
And here's some possible micro evidence from France. Aghion et al. claim to show that there's a U-shaped relationship between credit access and productivity growth. If crappy companies get easy credit, they don't exit the market.
https://t.co/UfH5xmS8gJ
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
@Noahpinion 52 minutes
and a recent paper from the bis goes farther it claims that zombies are infecting both europe and america and
And a recent paper from the BIS goes farther. It claims that zombies are infecting both Europe and America, and that low rates are the cause.
https://t.co/ueg0Xpr0IQ

The Most Relevant

Noah Smith
Noahpinion
15 years ago the internet was an escape from the real world now the real world is an escape from the internet
15 years ago, the internet was an escape from the real world. Now, the real world is an escape from the internet.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
this about sums up the republican party right now
This about sums up the Republican party right now.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
i swear to god the sight of people with deadly diseases crowdfunding their health care is the most dystopian t
I swear to God, the sight of people with deadly diseases crowdfunding their health care is the most dystopian thing about America right now.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
most countries the govt gives you health care america you frantically call the govt to beg for the right to co
Most countries: The govt gives you health care.
America: You frantically call the govt to beg for the right to continue to buy health care.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
happy 200th birthday karl marx
Happy 200th birthday, Karl Marx!
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
the cool thing about cyberpunk coming true is that we got all the cyberpunk futures china universal surveillan
The cool thing about cyberpunk coming true is that we got ALL the cyberpunk futures.

China: universal surveillance and social control

America: cool gadgets and staggering inequality

Russia: shadowy plots, covert ops, and assasins

Japan: Japan
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
this headline should read americans who dress up as clowns outnumber clowns who dress up as americans
This headline should read: "Americans who dress up as clowns outnumber clowns who dress up as Americans"
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
well that escalated quickly
Well that escalated quickly.
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
you read about the trail of tears the japanese internment etc in your history classes you read about all the c
You read about the Trail of Tears, the Japanese internment, etc. in your history classes.

You read about all the countries where the government threw people into camps en masse, and you wondered, "How could it happen? How could people allow that to happen?"

Well, now you know. https://t.co/QTAON4ady7
Noah Smith
Noahpinion
when i look at this graph i have a very hard time concluding that capitalism is failing the human race
When I look at this graph, I have a very hard time concluding that capitalism is failing the human race.
Total(1) => 0.22579312324524 f_f_QM(2) => 0.20460605621338 indS(2) => 0.15721082687378 indM(2) => 0.045592069625854 indM_1(2) => 0.0038080215454102 indM_2(2) => 0.00084280967712402 indM_4(2) => 0.0078878402709961 indM_5(2) => 0.005241870880127 indM_6(2) => 0.0012838840484619 indM_7(2) => 0.0064289569854736 indM_8(2) => 0.0011899471282959 indM_9(2) => 0.010595798492432 indM_10(2) => 0.0078659057617188 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.019458770751953 f_f_dT(20) => 0.019029855728149