I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.
A Montana poll! Daines+1 in the Senate Trump+8, 51-43 Tie in the US House Gianforte+7 for Gov -- We'll have a second opinion tmro from NYT/Siena
Biden by 10 in Pennsylvania and 4 in Florida, per new CNN/SSRS poll on TV
Today's IA phone polls, in contrast, are pretty clear. You've got Biden ahead in a state Clinton lost by 10. You've got a shift toward Biden, on average. And you have firms with relatively limited house effects.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome, I do think Democrats / their wealthiest megadonors will probably be kicking themselves that they didn't manage to scrounge up more money for this state
Clinton suffered her biggest losses in the places where Obama was strongest among white voters. It's not a simple racism story
One interesting twist in New Hampshire is that the candidate who receive the most votes is considered the winner