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Nate Cohn
I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.
A Montana poll! Daines+1 in the Senate Trump+8, 51-43 Tie in the US House Gianforte+7 for Gov -- We'll have a second opinion tmro from NYT/Siena
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Biden by 10 in Pennsylvania and 4 in Florida, per new CNN/SSRS poll on TV
Today's IA phone polls, in contrast, are pretty clear. You've got Biden ahead in a state Clinton lost by 10. You've got a shift toward Biden, on average. And you have firms with relatively limited house effects.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome, I do think Democrats / their wealthiest megadonors will probably be kicking themselves that they didn't manage to scrounge up more money for this state
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In the Times/Siena national poll just a couple of weeks ago, voters overwhelmingly supported a new $2 trillion dollar stimulus package by a 72-23 percent margin. It's just astonishing that a president trailing by 9 points is going to pass on this opportunity
Hard to argue against an audit/recount if the president-elect asserts, without any evidence, that were millions of illegal votes
Clinton suffered her biggest losses in the places where Obama was strongest among white voters. It's not a simple racism story
One interesting twist in New Hampshire is that the candidate who receive the most votes is considered the winner
A huge loss for the Republicans: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ordered a new congressional map in one of the country's most gerrymandered states. It's a state case, so SCOTUS appeal is unlikely. It's likely to cost the GOP a seat, and undermine their position in others
The Texas Senate race is really flying under the radar. A GOP incumbent in the mid-40s, with a Dem candidate who remains totally unknown, in a state that's as close as anywhere in the presidential race...
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