Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn


I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

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4) The nation has steadily become more diverse, which has helped Democrats more in fast growing Georgia. As you can see from this '16 chart, Georgia ranks #1  for helping Democrats in the net effect of demographic change

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One thing about Democratic gains in the Sun Belt and Republican gains in the Rust Belt is that it's at least beginning to upend the 2010-era story about gerrymandering, redistricting, and the Democratic 'geographic' disadvantage in the House

Canada: we’re always here, when you’re ready

I don't really agree with @NateSilver538 's glass-half full perspective on the 2020 polling miss

Virginia's an example of how hard it can be to see any tangible consequence to changing voting laws Perhaps no state did more to make it easier to vote. It basically passed HR1. Yet the increase in turnout was average and the Black % of the electorate fell

@HotlineJosh  ultimately, there are a lot of possible levers to pull here and i don't think anyone has fully thought through the extent that you can misuse this power--or what you could get away with if you tried to do so

The Georgia election law's restrictions on voting are unlikely to discernibly affect turnout or the result

This map is starting to look familiar (esp with WA/OR still limiting eligibility to 60+)

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Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, according to the AP Along with AZ, NV and WI, he now leads in states worth 270 electoral votes--the number needed to win

Hard to argue against an audit/recount if the president-elect asserts, without any evidence, that were millions of illegal votes

Biden now leads in states worth 306 electoral votes. Here's how the map will probably finish

Clinton suffered her biggest losses in the places where Obama was strongest among white voters. It's not a simple racism story

A record-shattering first day of early voting in the Georgia runoff: 168k vote in-person yesterday, up from 136k on day one of in-person early voting for the general election

In the Times/Siena national poll just a couple of weeks ago, voters overwhelmingly supported a new $2 trillion dollar stimulus package by a 72-23 percent margin. It's just astonishing that a president trailing by 9 points is going to pass on this opportunity

Ossoff and Warnock are both on track for victory with a greater than 95% chance to win, according to our estimates. This is not a projection, but the remaining vote--including another 18k DeKalb early votes and nearly 100k absentee votes--overwhelmingly favors the Democrats

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One interesting twist in New Hampshire is that the candidate who receive the most votes is considered the winner

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