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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

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It's also a really tough district to poll, so while what looks like a 7-point lead could turn into a 2-point loss, it could also wind up being a 15-point win.
The GOP is outperforming the fundamentals here, but the district has historically been more purple in Congressional elections than in presidential ones. And the GOP has a real good opponent in Salazar. But Shalala has a good favorability rating and has raised plenty of money.
Just witnessed something incredibly disturbing: a man calmly sitting for several minutes while waiting for a haircut, instead of playing with his phone or even reading a magazine.
If the poll has been published elsewhere, please send us a link. If it hasn't, please send us a PDF, which we're happy to upload. Sorry for boring tweets.
PSA to campaigns: We've started to have a lot of D and R campaigns directly send us their internal polls for inclusion in our polling database and forecasts, which we appreciate. The best address to do that is POLLALERT-at-FIVETHIRTYEIGHT-dot-com
Anyway, I feel like "the blue wave is concentrated in wealthy suburbs" has gone from a useful heuristic to having become a bit overrated. There's a fair bit of truth in that idea. But it can understate how noisy/messy the data is and how idiosyncratic races for Congress can be.
A lot of these districts are pretty Trumpy. But they're also pretty elastic/swingy, historically. They tend to have lots of independents and not necessarily a lot of loyalty to the Republican brand. Wouldn't mind seeing a poll of MI-1 (the Upper Peninsula), for instance.
I'm interested in rural, northerly, secular districts like ME-2. They're another place, outside of the suburbs, where Dems seem to performing above expectations, although with some exceptions (e.g. MN-8). https://t.co/SDmrTWg8rV
She cites Hogan as an example of a famous upset. But Hogan trailed by only 5 in the final 5 polls and led in one of them (albeit his own poll). Upsets can and do happen in Senate & Gov races when someone trails by 5-9 points. Not usually when they trail by 16.
One of the more blatant examples of misdirection + cherry-picking I've seen here when citing polls. She makes it sound like James trails by only 9 in the RCP average. He does not—he trails by 9 in *one poll* (from a pollster with a D- rating). He trails by 16 in the RCP average.
Total(1) => 0.084859848022461 f_f_QM(2) => 0.073622226715088 indS(2) => 0.053653955459595 indM(2) => 0.017539978027344 indM_1(2) => 0.0032060146331787 indM_2(2) => 0.00078678131103516 indM_4(2) => 0.0043759346008301 indM_5(2) => 0.0034959316253662 indM_6(2) => 0.0023789405822754 indM_7(2) => 0.0019631385803223 indM_8(2) => 0.00085687637329102 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.0095689296722412 f_f_dT(20) => 0.0092217922210693