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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

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@Nate_Cohn I basically share your take. (I might say "fine " instead of "pretty well ".) It seems like they got about what their bargaining position was worth (i.e. not much but not nothing).
Basically the 2020 candidates + a couple others who deeply fear a primary challenge.
Democrats haven't really decided between:

Message 1—"The shutdown is Republicans' fault."
Message 2—"It's worth shutting down the government because DACA, etc. is so important."

Instead, there's been a roughly even mix of both. And those messages sort of contradict one another.https://t.co/wjAluDgbaj
This seems like a not-great poll for Democrats, who had a larger edge on the shutdown-blame question last week.

They may have started out with the more sympathetic position, but I'm not sure they've had the stronger messaging. Could use more polls, though.https://t.co/7zE4XBX12O
The Jaguars won the popular vote.
Big difference between win probability models (which still have the Jaguars as 2:1 favorites after that Patriots touchdown) and betting markets (which have it pretty much 50/50).
@SeanTrende I think it's a mix of:
1—Economy is pretty good & GOP/Trump getting more credit for it
2—Tax bill isn't a net positive for GOP but has become less of a drag for various reasons
3—Mean reversion; news cycle has been quiet with lots of low-impact media-fueled controversies
4—Noise
I mean, it *could* be the tax bill. It could also be the opposite: that the GOP is becoming more popular because voters are no longer thinking as much about the unpopular tax bill.
Also, the tax bill is still pretty unpopular -- as unpopular as Obamacare was in 2010 -- although its numbers have improved some.
The Women's March is probably a more *important* story than the shutdown. It involves less drama/unpredictability, however, so news outlets deem it to be less newsworthy.https://t.co/BT8iDU2cfg
Total(1) => 0.097145080566406 f_f_QM(2) => 0.064050912857056 indS(2) => 0.04395604133606 indM(2) => 0.016381025314331 indM_1(2) => 0.0019967555999756 indM_2(2) => 0.00065398216247559 indM_4(2) => 0.0026218891143799 indM_5(2) => 0.0044820308685303 indM_6(2) => 0.0022852420806885 indM_7(2) => 0.0022420883178711 indM_8(2) => 0.00096464157104492 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.01506781578064 f_f_dT(20) => 0.014448404312134