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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

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Put another way, the theory that Democratic over-performance in these special elections is only a result of low turnout is BS. They're performing about equally well in high- and low-turnout specials.
Looks like turnout in AZ-8 will be about ~60% of presidential-year (2016) turnout. That's fairly high; a bit higher than in AZ-8 in 2014. Nationwide, midterms typically feature turnout of ~60-70% of presidential-year numbers. So this result comes under midterm-type conditions.
Such a result would also not be too *surprising*, given that it would be fairly consistent with pre-election polls, as well as with other special elections (e.g. PA-18) that showed a massive swing toward Democrats. But still would be a bad, discomforting data point for the GOP.
If the result ends up at Lesko +6 (it obviously may not since there's some Election Day vote to count), this would represent a 19-point swing toward Democrats from the district's partisan baseline.https://t.co/uo31Hi8TMQ
Philly sports is the new Boston sports.
If Lesko *loses* that's interesting, I guess -- or if she wins by 17 or something. Otherwise, kind of a meh outcome which won't contribute that much knowledge above and beyond what we've already learned from past specials.
Based on how Congressional special elections have gone so far in 2017/18, and the strong Republican lean of the district, you'd expect the Republican (Lesko) to win by about 8 points.
I'll confess I'm having trouble getting too excited about the special election in Arizona tonight. We already have a lot of data from these sorts of very Republican districts.
Ahh, answered here. Sorry for the dumb thread.
I guess it could also be a Rodney Hood jersey from the bargain bin? All I'm saying is that No. 5 is an interesting choice.
Total(1) => 0.094902992248535 f_f_QM(2) => 0.087265968322754 indS(2) => 0.050604104995728 indM(2) => 0.032438993453979 indM_1(2) => 0.0022921562194824 indM_2(2) => 0.00082802772521973 indM_4(2) => 0.0033049583435059 indM_5(2) => 0.010684728622437 indM_6(2) => 0.0062417984008789 indM_7(2) => 0.0050821304321289 indM_8(2) => 0.0035300254821777 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.0062429904937744 f_f_dT(20) => 0.005986213684082