Nate Silver

Nate Silver


Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

3587363 followers  •  1448 follow  •    •   http://t.co/wNpFg2xg4f

OK, but why are Americans fearful of breakthroughs? I'd suggest it's largely because of the mixed messages they're hearing from public health officials and the media, which often imply that vaccinated people should behave with a *lot* of caution rather than "returning to normal".

One thing that's gotten lost in the panic over breakthrough infections is that vaccine entry requirements for mass gatherings (sporting events, etc) as well as higher-risk indoor settings (gyms, etc) are still a pretty reasonable way to manage the pandemic until cases come down.

BTW, part of the poor media messaging—see below—is in exaggerating how easily vaccinated people transmit. They're both much less likely to get COVID *and* less likely to transmit if they do. Being vaccinated offers unvaccinated household members (e.g. kids) a LOT of protection.

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People on this platform routinely misrepresent my views on COVID policy so just for the record here are my views, which are pretty nuanced and about as middle-of-the-road as it gets.

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There's this debate about whether conservatives who refuse the vaccine are misinformed about the facts or are making some sort of political statement. The thing is, people's views of "the facts" are highly shaped by their politics so that may not be a meaningful distinction.

Here are the states where restaurant reservations are down the most since Aug. 1 as compared with 2019, per OpenTable. In general, would support the idea that there's more pullback from economic activity in well-vaccinated blue states. Louisiana a big outlier due to hurricane.

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Never forget that a lot of people on this platform are completely nuts.

Biden's vax-or-test mandate is actually fairly popular. So is a vaccine requirement for indoor activities. Again, not really a surprise when 75% of adults have taken at least one vaccine dose.

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@germanrlopez  I think there's a question as to whether she was really behind the requirement in the first place. It seems to have been implemented by a group of eight Bay Area county health officials.

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Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

Wait, so Trump not only rejects stimulus funds that would probably have helped his re-election chances, but *also* does so in a way to make sure that he personally will take blame for it?

I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.

Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now*, Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances.

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Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99%

"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.

I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate.

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