Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.
In general, our forecasts have been very steady in these states and the Upshot/Siena polls showing narrow Republican leads have been right in line with our model's expectations.
There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard.
Our post-debate poll with @_Ipsos shows that voters liked Biden's performance better, but there was basically no change in who they intend to vote for.
Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.
"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.
If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.