Nate Silver

Nate Silver


Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

3324218 followers  •  1295 follow  •    •   http://t.co/wNpFg2xg4f

In case this is useful: Trump is actually rated fairly poorly (42% favorable, 50% unfavorable) by active-duty members of the military.

In general then, this reflects recent patterns. Deaths are declining (this is the lowest total for a non-holiday Tuesday since 3/31) ... BUT the other metrics are in danger of slipping into a plateau after progress was made earlier.

Also, the decline in cases is mostly concentrated in the northeast plus a few scattered rural states. *A lot of the country is still roughly at a plateau in new cases*, although the decline in deaths may be a bit more robust.

@jbarro  @michaelbdI  @DanFosterType  think perception of coronavirus risk can vary (and evolve with the evidence), but also that risk-tolerance/willingness to accept trade-offs may not have any one set equilibrium and can probably shift in fairly short order.

I cannot find a scientific poll showing Trump's support among police officers, by contrast. (Anybody seen one?). There are reasons to think it is likely quite high, however.

US numbers via @COVID19Tracking : Newly reported deaths Today⁠—1,172 Yesterday—469 1 week ago (5/26)⁠—629 5/19⁠*—1,430 Newly reported cases T⁠—22K Y⁠—16K 5/26⁠⁠—16K 5/19—21K Newly reported tests T—401K Y—404K 5/26—302K 5/19—397K Positive test % T—5% Y—4% 5/26—5% 5/19—5%

Somewhat apart from the protests themselves, one wonders what coronavirus (temporarily) fading from the news—and less signaling about its importance from the media and other elites—will do to social distancing.

Every de Blasio tweet is getting ratio'ed in a way that hasn't been seen since the halcyon days of the Howard Schultz campaign.

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Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight  projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.

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Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.

If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.

I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.

Korea now seems to think the so-called "re-infections" it found are actually just false positives. A lot of smart epidemiologists thought this was likely the case all along, so not a huge surprise, but passing this along for people who freaked out earlier.

This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists who are asked to opine on a whole bunch of topics they don't really know anything about.

So far, Parkland is *not* fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes a pretty big difference.

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