Nate Silver

Nate Silver


Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

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Maybe you could convince me the chances of the GOP subverting the election in 2024 are overrated—but it's not just a 2024 issue. If a whole generation of Republican elected officials believe in the Big Lie (or vouch for it for utilitarian reasons) you've got a long term problem.

It's funny that there's so much Trust The Experts™ discourse on COVID but not really on other issues. There's a strong view in political science that the president's bully pulpit is overrated, and certainly in a state that voted for Trump by 39 points.

We're at kind of a weird media moment where fairly conventional center-leftism is seen as contrarian.

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The NYT has a pretty striking negativity bias in its COVID coverage, even relative to other outlets.

So the thesis here is that Walensky follows the medical science, but actually this is bad and the CDC should tell weird little lies to people?

I guess you can steel-man this by saying "behavioral science is science too!". I strongly agree. But i) the public health community's instincts for behavioral science have been poor; ii) Behavioral science would suggest an agency being less honest with people has consequences.

@mattyglesias  This goes back to the days when people feared that discussion of natural immunity could lend support to the "herd immunity strategy " so there was a weird taboo against mentioning natural immunity even though The Science was pretty clear about it by mid-spring 2020.

The pandemic wouldn't have been as bad if public health officials had realized most people regard in-person social interaction as 'essential', are not bad people for it, and that a strategy centered around expecting them to sacrifice it for months at a time was never gonna work.

The entire nation of Canada not having won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is one of the craziest streaks in sports history and I think you have to root for it to keep going with so many other of our most important sports curses (Cubs, Red Sox, 1 v 16 seed) having fallen by the wayside.

If I were *fully vaccinated* and my parents didn't let me go to summer camp after I'd had a lonely and "terrible" school year by their own admission, I wouldn't *never* forgive them but I'd be mad about it for a long, long time.

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Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

Wait, so Trump not only rejects stimulus funds that would probably have helped his re-election chances, but *also* does so in a way to make sure that he personally will take blame for it?

I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.

Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now*, Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances.

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Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99%

"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.

I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate.

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