Nate Silver

Nate Silver

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.

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This is about what I would have expected. Trump lost all 5 of his general election debates (2 against Biden and 3 against Clinton) per CNN polling. This was actually the second-closest margin out of those (he lost the final debate in 2016 by 13 points).

In general, our forecasts have been very steady in these states and the Upshot/Siena polls showing narrow Republican leads have been right in line with our model's expectations.

I know this point was made repeatedly last night including by me, but after sleeping on it, I wonder if people aren't still underrating the importance of the debate having been Trump's best remaining opportunity to climb back into the race and it seemingly having been squandered.

Trump can win. It's mathematically possible that polls could be waayyy off or something could come from totally out of the blue. But there are also a lot of things working against him in the final 11 days. COVID cases are rising. He's way behind in $. And 50m have already voted.

There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard.

Our post-debate poll with @_Ipsos  shows that voters liked Biden's performance better, but there was basically no change in who they intend to vote for.

I wonder if people who plan to *drop off absentee ballots at a box or other in-person location* classify themselves as "voting early in person" or "voting by mail" when being asked that in a poll.

As someone who was very sharply critical of how the press covered 2016, I think it has by and large done a good job in 2020 under tough circumstances.


Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight  projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.

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Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99%

"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.

If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.

I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.