Nate Silver

Nate Silver


Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

3239259 followers  •  1224 follow  •    •   http://t.co/wNpFg2xg4f

So: * Sanders 50/50ish to win a pledged delegate majority. * "No majority" still a fairly likely outcome, although note that Sanders will win the nomination via plurality some of the time that happens.

Since results are so slow to come in, it may be a while before we can turn the model back on, but these first two scenarios give you most of what you need to know:

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Plausible. And (low bar to clear) but it was maybe Biden's sharpest debate too.

Think I wrote an article a few years ago saying hockey wouldn't work in Vegas and boy was that wrong. Really good crowd, fans are mostly locals and seem hockey-smart and pumped up for a random regular-season game. Also they make the slot-machine sound when the Knights score.

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Some truth in this but the Bloomberg boomlet after he finished in 0th place is worse than the Klob boomlet after she finished 5th/3rd. And Bloomberg has gotten roughly 4x more media coverage than she has since Iowa.

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Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight  projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.

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Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.

If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.

I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.

This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists who are asked to opine on a whole bunch of topics they don't really know anything about.

So far, Parkland is *not* fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes a pretty big difference.

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Kellyanne is lying. It cuts Medicaid by about $800 billion.

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