Nate Silver

Nate Silver


Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

3653658 followers  •  1363 follow  •    •   http://t.co/wNpFg2xg4f

COVID policy is going to get even more complicated when, on the one hand, a sizable and growing minority of the population has been vaccinated and wants to resume higher-risk activities and, OTOH, people who aren't immune may have more risk than ever because of new variants.

If you know older or high-risk friends or family members who are eligible for the COVID vaccine but aren't as digitally savvy as you are, please don't hesitate to work with them to help get them signed up.

I'm pro lockdown for the time being given the circumstances of the moment (vaccines here, new variants etc.) but I also worry that when we look back in 5 years we'll discover all sorts of adverse consequences from people being physically/socially isolated from one another.

This is a good column. When you see people say stuff like "you shouldn't change your behavior even once you get the vaccine", you should be wary of any other advice they give.

What's useful to point out: 1) Full (95%) effectiveness doesn't kick in until ~14 days after the *second* dose. So manage your risk carefully in the interim. 2) We aren't sure yet how good vaccines are at preventing (asymptomatic) infections. So don't be a jerk and wear a mask.

We need to remind people to wait for ~14 days after the 2nd dose for full protection to kick in. But it's wild to tell vaccinated people that they shouldn't hang out w/ other vaccinated people, or with people who are very unlikely to become seriously ill.

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@thehowie  I mean, I can see a case for strictness when there are very bad local outbreaks (as in the UK right now), as least until we find out how much vaccines reduce transmission. But I'd make that the message then and emphasize this is only true on a short-term, emergency basis.

Here's our podcast from yesterday with some non-pithy, long-form thoughts, though.

Our last liveblog of Trump's presidency (well, unless he pulls off a Grover Cleveland) and our first liveblog of Biden's presidency:

There's so much attention given to the fact that Trump got 74 million votes but little to the fact that Biden got 81 million. It's just an insane number. Population growth is a big factor, but no one before 2020 had even gotten 70 million votes.

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Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

Wait, so Trump not only rejects stimulus funds that would probably have helped his re-election chances, but *also* does so in a way to make sure that he personally will take blame for it?

I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.

Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.

Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now*, Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances.

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