Lawrence McDonald

Lawrence McDonald


Father of two, Former Head of Macro Strategy Soc Gen, NY Times Bestselling Author, @CNBC & @RealVision Contributor, founder of @BearTrapsReport

75218 followers  •  13515 follow  •    •   https://t.co/Lisjugp9eC

In early January 2021, Goldman Sachs year-end oil price target was $56, after multiple revisions - this evening they raised their estimate to $90. The blessings of Wall St. research are endless.

Apple, Tesla facing supply-chain risk as key suppliers halt production at some Chinese facilities - Nikkei *China's tighter energy consumption policy is responsible for the production halts, with a wide range of industries impacted by the crackdown.

Oil touched $79 tonight, Brent is at the best level since October 2018. Back then in an ESG free world the US oil rig count was 858 as wide open capital markets juiced energy exploration, today under ESG arrest, the count is 421.

With the US Rig count 50% off 2018 levels... “US NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SULLIVAN WILL MEET SAUDI ARABIA'S CROWN PRINCE ON MONDAY” per AP. #EnergyCrisis2021 

*JAPAN TO END VIRUS EMERGENCY STATUS IN ALL AREAS ON SEPT 30 (2) *Headlines 6 weeks apart.

1.50% on US 10s, what do bonds know?

Since Last Summer Exxon XOM +42% Amazon AMZN +0% *Current value $250B vs. $1700B, inflation impact on the rotation, on stage here.

Front-month US natural gas is up 39% in September, two cents from $6, the ESG induced energy crisis in full bloom.

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*FED'S KAPLAN, ROSENGREN TO SELL ALL STOCKS AMID ETHICS CONCERNS - BloombergCentral Bankers trading stocks - Why in the name of God´s green earth did it take a public shaming on Twitter to inflict common sense?

Progress, Bitcoin - a $500B crash and no one is begging for a bailout...

Breaking news, when you pay human beings NOT to work it is very hard to get them back into the labor force.

Drawdowns from Recent Highs: Oil: -53% Bitcoin: -46% Delta Airlines: -46% Tesla: -42% Goldman: -40% JP Morgan: -38% Transports: -36% Russell 2000: -35% FANGs: -28% S&P 500: -27% Nasdaq 100: -25% Amazon: -23% Consumer Staples: -19% Gold: -7% Cash: 0% via: @BearTrapsReport 

True Story - October 19, 1987 Me: “I need to sell x shares of IBM” Trader: “$98 bid” Me: “my machine says $119” Trader: “Well, sell it to your machine then.”

S&P 500 "All-Time Highs 2019 - 2021: 117 2012: 0 2011: 0 2010: 0 2009: 0 2008: 0 2007: 9 2006: 0 2005: 0 2004: 0 2003: 0 2002: 0 2001: 0 2000: 4 1999: 35 1998: 47 1997: 45 via @charliebilello 

‘China’s Lehman Brothers moment’ - What are our 21 Systemic Risk indicators saying about the Evergrande credit crisis? Important Take here:

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US Federal Reserve accepts $1.1T in daily reverse repo operation. All Lehman needed was a $15B repo on September 15, 2008. Never would have failed today, NOT a chance.

NBC News Decision Desk projection, Joe Biden should now be referred to as the president-elect. HQ projects that Biden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.

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