Lawrence McDonald

Lawrence McDonald


Father of two, Former Head of Macro Strategy Soc Gen, NY Times Bestselling Author, @CNBC & @RealVision Contributor, founder of @BearTrapsReport

65912 followers  •  12851 follow  •    •   https://t.co/Lisjugp9eC

Copper production constraints in June, come price impact in November. Capex (supply driver) off close to 40% from 2014-16 levels. Meaningful, Copper - Silver demand from electric vehicles, problem with future impact on EV pricing, competitiveness. (2)

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Liquidity Warning: Close to 95% of ALL bitcoin is owned by less than 2.5% of wallets. 85.62% by 0.47% of wallets. Roughly HALF of all wallets own less than $20 worth (0.001 btc). (2)

After a cold snap, some fiscal movement on the Hill, silver up 6%, gold nearly 3% higher - special thanks to @ACGAnalytics  #WashingtonDC  #FOMC 

All that matters is the balance sheet pace and distance to taper... POWELL SAYS FED WILL NOT PREEMPTIVELY RAISE RATES UNTIL WE SEE ACTUAL INFLATION

Longer-term inflation expectations are ticking up more materially. Traders are pricing in a 1.9% inflation rate over the next 5-10 years, the highest rate since August 2019, according to 5y 5y forward breakeven contracts. Via @lisaabramowicz1 

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*PFIZER/BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE APPROVED FOR USE IN U.K. (2)

Focus on making every minute of today count toward a brilliant tomorrow. This is worth a view. via @McConaughey 

Dollar bond sales from Asia have topped $400 billion for the first time ever in a calendar year, cheap USD, cheap funding.. *Four Months ago.. Wall Street's narrative was covid funding issues would crush EM relative to DM.

Jim Chanos Sees ‘Golden Age of Fraud’ in Speculative Market *NOT allowing the business cycle to function, comes with a price.

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Dow Jones Industrial AverageNov 2017: 24,300 Nov 2016: 17,900 Nov 2014: 17,900 What’s going on here?

Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power 2010 Obama: -63 1994 Clinton: -52 1958: Eisenhower: -48 1974 Ford (Nixon): -48 1966 Johnson: -47 1946 Truman: -45 2006 Bush: -30 1950 Truman: -29 1982 Reagan: -26 2018 Trump: -26 *NY Times data since 1946

Market rally since @realDonaldTrump  won the election now exceeds all other newly elected US Presidents since at least WW2, + up 25.4%

. 's Green New Deal has largely been tried before in Europe, aggressive-carbon neutrality goals led to this result. Making mathematically unsustainable promises to voters always end in tears. #France  #Populism 

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Would You Desribe the State of the US economy in Excellent- Good shape? 2017: 66% 2016: 29% 2015: 37% 2014: 31% 2013: 30% Quinnipiac Poll via

NBC News Decision Desk projection, Joe Biden should now be referred to as the president-elect. HQ projects that Biden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.

Drawdowns from Recent Highs: Oil: -53% Bitcoin: -46% Delta Airlines: -46% Tesla: -42% Goldman: -40% JP Morgan: -38% Transports: -36% Russell 2000: -35% FANGs: -28% S&P 500: -27% Nasdaq 100: -25% Amazon: -23% Consumer Staples: -19% Gold: -7% Cash: 0% via: @BearTrapsReport 

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