Axel Merk

Axel Merk


Proud dad, humble investor. https://t.co/AYECktcTgE https://t.co/eWkFyOCBxH

11506 followers  •  511 follow  •    •   https://t.co/vIZ7cFWDFr

Kashkari suggests taking the foot off the accelerator is akin to writing off workers: "The vast majority of Americans want to work, and I am not ready to write them off..."

Regarding today’s “surprise”, rates implied by Fed Funds futures only moved 2-3bps since pre-meeting. The “dots” caught up with where the market already was (src: big, Merk)

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Powell: FOMC statements are where you drag your feet a little

"To think that you wouldn't have to move until 2023 to me is almost not credible" former Kansas City Fed President Tells @MNINews  's @pdacosta 

the "belly of the curve" visualized Pre-FOMC and post FOMC curves: higher rates in nearer years, lower rates further out, with some arguing this suggests more rates hikes earlier, then lower rates later.

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FT interview with CDU candidate to succeed Merkel: Armin Laschet: "The EU’s recovery fund, financed by debt taken on by the European Commission, was a one-off and should not be repeated"

repeat after me: there's no inflation. there's no inflation. there's no inflation. Just look at the data the right away:

Powell in hearing confirms in an answer to a Q individuals will “eventually” require unique digital IDs for the use central bank digital currency

When you've had a broken leg, what do you do when the cast comes off? A) Gradually get back in shape; or B) eat sugar, then race as if there's no tomorrow? If you are a central banker, the answer is B, it appears. Here's just the latest side effect

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@NarangVipin  Moderna was founded in 2010. Now that the secret behind the name has been revealed, it might help get the message out that the vaccine was ten years in the making.

- you are not an oil trader - you have no position in WTI May contracts Yet you can't take your eyes off the screen. What's the best remedy against that? Asking for a friend.

"Since the S&P 500 was created in 1957 U.S. inflation has risen above 4% nine times, and in eight of those cases stocks were lower three months later. " @WSJ 's @jmackin2  writes

"the Federal Reserve expects to announce soon the establishment of a Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses" "This facility is open to investment grade companies and will provide bridge financing of four years."

When businesses re-open, they'll higher essential employees [your call whether that's a pun], but wait to re-hire full pre-covid staff until revenue come back; more likely, bruised, they'll run on leaner staff. As such, a V-shaped recovery doesn't appear plausible

Oktoberfest: 6 million expected, cancelled (in comparison: 10 million were expected to attend the Tokyo Olympics). Today, it was announced that the Oktoberfest was cancelled. Understandable and expected, but a symbol of the economic shocks reverberating

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Fed Fund Futures are starting to price in a rate hike in 2 years

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I condemn any incitement to violence, but we have a serious problem when we silence free speech. Social media firms enabled mass hysteria. If they were honest, they would suspend their entire service to reflect how to have a reboot that fosters civil discourse.

@greg_ip  If we bail out shale, why do we wonder the young embrace socialism? There's nothing systemically important about shale producers. If they go bust, creditors take over and can continue operating (or mothballing) them. Sure, bail them out if you want to kill capitalism.

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