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These cycles repeat - near the end of EVERY tightening cycle.. 1) yields decline, stocks rally (P/E) 2) housing stocks rally; data bounce 3) soft landing is priced in (yes, every time) 4) credit spreads tighten 5) job market looks ok All repeating in ‘2023 #macro  #hope 

...is that as we kick the can down the road, we make the system inherently more unstable and prone to the butterfly effect: a tiny butterfly moving her wings (e.g. real yields moving a bit higher or a small recession) is enough to generate a tornado in markets. 23/

...Central Banks are facing inflation and pushing real yields higher. At 300-400% total debt/GDP, higher real yields are going to cause serious damage over time. It seems we are pushing the limits, one way or another. So, what's the end game? The options ahead are: 20/

In 2019-2021, we faced the zero lower bound problem When nominal yields are already -50 bps like they were in EU, pushing them further down has several risks - phyisical cash hoarding, for example The only way to push real yields lower is via higher inflation expectations 18/

Fixed income is making a return this year as yields become attractive again

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But generating inflation is something we struggled with in the pre-pandemic era. The system starts to stagnate, until a disruptive force causes sudden change. In 2020, the pandemic arrived. Initially, it turbo-charged the system: more debt, lower real yields. But now... 19/

WATCH: Palestinian engineer Ayed Abu Ramadan has turned to vertical farming methods to increase his yields of citrus fruits and strawberries in the densely populated Gaza Strip where agricultural land has been shrinking

Every. Single. Cycle. Ends. In. Lower. Yields.

Thanks to higher fixed-income yields and lower equity valuations, almost all of the firms we surveyed have increased their expectations for stock and bond returns for the next decade. Here are some takeaways for investors from @christine_benz :

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Apparently my before/after curve views are a minor hit around here? 1st stop consideration in my world so like breathing to me. #TREASURY  curves AGAIN by request - ahead of #FOMC  (green), yields slip back post #FED  ahead of #JOBS  (purple) & back up/new highs post #NFP  (orange)

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The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasuryyields is now the most inverted since 1981:

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Japan will now allow 10-year yields to trade as high as 0.50%. And while this seems like a minor policy change, it is likely to cause some serious market volatility. Why? A thread. 1/

The gap between 2-year & 10-year Treasuryyields is the most inverted, the most negative, since the early 1980s.

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Sources Confirmed: Judge to the Yankees, $360m, nine years. Total surrender by the Yankees. The bet in himself yields huge money

The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasuryyields. That inversion occurred today for the first time since 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.04%) ending the day with a yield 3 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (4.01%).

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NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM. NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than most Chart is the two year gilt yield

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CATASTROPHIC TEA YIELDS IN SRI LANKA WAS A RESULT OF SYNTHETIC FERTILIZERS PUSHED BY IMF RESULTING IN $425M LOSS *

by , combines & o @ChoiseCom  #MetaFierin  @crypteriumg  benefits #CeFias  hig #DeFi  yields & low fees Pre-sale ended instantly, but you can participate in the next sale: ⏰ April 5th 💰 -25% price Get on the whitel #IDOst  now:

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The use of force and violence inevitably entails unanticipated consequences, but rarely yields a solution.

FTSE fell but finished on weekly high. £ plummeted but closed @ Feb levels. U.K. Gilt yields fell. What G Soros meant by Black Friday?

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