...Central Banks are facing inflation and pushing real yields higher. At 300-400% total debt/GDP, higher real yields are going to cause serious damage over time. It seems we are pushing the limits, one way or another. So, what's the end game? The options ahead are: 20/
But generating inflation is something we struggled with in the pre-pandemic era. The system starts to stagnate, until a disruptive force causes sudden change. In 2020, the pandemic arrived. Initially, it turbo-charged the system: more debt, lower real yields. But now... 19/
WATCH: Palestinian engineer Ayed Abu Ramadan has turned to vertical farming methods to increase his yields of citrus fruits and strawberries in the densely populated Gaza Strip where agricultural land has been shrinking
Thanks to higher fixed-income yields and lower equity valuations, almost all of the firms we surveyed have increased their expectations for stock and bond returns for the next decade. Here are some takeaways for investors from @christine_benz :
Apparently my before/after curve views are a minor hit around here? 1st stop consideration in my world so like breathing to me. #TREASURY curves AGAIN by request - ahead of #FOMC (green), yields slip back post #FED ahead of #JOBS (purple) & back up/new highs post #NFP (orange)
The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasuryyields is now the most inverted since 1981:
The gap between 2-year & 10-year Treasuryyields is the most inverted, the most negative, since the early 1980s.
The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasuryyields. That inversion occurred today for the first time since 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.04%) ending the day with a yield 3 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (4.01%).
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM. NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than most Chart is the two year gilt yield
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