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JPMORGAN, on inflation: “Yes the breakeven revival has been swift, but the rally hasn’t been excessive .. And unless the Phillips curve gets some backbone under Biden, this move too could fade ..”

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And everything we've seen over the past 20 years says that the short-run Phillips curve is pretty flat — that is, low unemployment pushes inflation up very slowly. So the inflation risks if the economy runs somewhat hot for a year are small 7/

Natixis - Supply shocks eliminate the Phillips curve: We will look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone. In both cases, the usual relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth has weakened considerably in the recent…

How can a Chem Prof. (Dept. head no less) know more about economics than economists? That's easy. Science uses models that hew to reality. Economists' models are from Planet Clare, (R*, Phillips Curve, Neutral Rate, all junk). @DavidBCollum . Here's reality

Workers’ bargaining power, business cycle fluctuations, and the Phillips curve

Natixis - The labour market and the goods and services market in the United States and the euro zone: The US labour market is characterised by a similar Phillips curve effect (the effect of the unemployment rate on wage growth) to that in the euro zone.…

Phillips curve will make a comeback now that it isn't part of the Fed's reaction function. #DontAtMe 

Here are SA real earnings PNSW in constant $1982-1984 that has risen sharply since March makes no sense = never seen this before. Biggest rise in real wages since records began in 1965. Bang goes the Phillips Curve which now slopes up sorry macro types.

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In this week's News in Charts, @fathomcomment  explores the economics/health trade-off and the Phillips curve: -19 #COVID 

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New post: Why do some find the economics/health trade-off so hard to get? Because it’s like the Phillips curve. There is a level of economic restrictions that gets R=1. Anything less because of an "economics/health trade-off" is self-defeating.

"The Phillips curve is not sleeping, it’s dead:" MS's Jim Caron's takeaway from the Fed meeting. The Fed plans to hold rates near zero even as the jobless rate falls to 4%. This shows a distrust in the traditionally-believed connection between low unemployment rates & inflation.

After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @Ocasio2018  follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips Curve, and the idea that unemployment could be much lower without inflationary worries.

For more on how economists are taking a serious, critical reexamination of the Phillips Curve and the idea of NAIRU, see this:

So what happens if you expand UI? It might — might — reduce incentives to work, shifting the Phillips curve up and to the right. But it also increases aggregate demand. And because demand, not inflation, is the binding constraint it REDUCES unemployment 7/

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The Fed seems to be retiring the Phillips curve approach to forecasting inflation and, as a result, will likely keep rates near zero even if inflation starts to meaningfully pick up: @TimDuy 

@Ocasio2018  asking Powell whether estimates of long-term unemployment rate were too high. "Absolutely," he says. Now asking about Phillips Curve. Really strong questions from both sides of the aisle in this hearing.

Curves, ranked: 1. Supply curve 2. Demand curve 3. Yield curve 4. IS curve 5. Beveridge curve 6. Reaction function 7. Indifference curve 8. Contract curve 9. Phillips curve 10. J curve

Central banker on the left believes in tooth fairies, unicorns and a Phillips Curve. Central banker on the right just bought 16 tons of gold

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