JPMORGAN, on inflation: “Yes the breakeven revival has been swift, but the rally hasn’t been excessive .. And unless the Phillips curve gets some backbone under Biden, this move too could fade ..”
And everything we've seen over the past 20 years says that the short-run Phillips curve is pretty flat — that is, low unemployment pushes inflation up very slowly. So the inflation risks if the economy runs somewhat hot for a year are small 7/
Workers’ bargaining power, business cycle fluctuations, and the Phillips curve
Phillips curve will make a comeback now that it isn't part of the Fed's reaction function. #DontAtMe
Here are SA real earnings PNSW in constant $1982-1984 that has risen sharply since March makes no sense = never seen this before. Biggest rise in real wages since records began in 1965. Bang goes the Phillips Curve which now slopes up sorry macro types.
BIS: Bargaining Power And The Phillips Curve: A Micro-Macro Analysis
New post: Why do some find the economics/health trade-off so hard to get? Because it’s like the Phillips curve. There is a level of economic restrictions that gets R=1. Anything less because of an "economics/health trade-off" is self-defeating.
After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @Ocasio2018 follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips Curve, and the idea that unemployment could be much lower without inflationary worries.
For more on how economists are taking a serious, critical reexamination of the Phillips Curve and the idea of NAIRU, see this:
So what happens if you expand UI? It might — might — reduce incentives to work, shifting the Phillips curve up and to the right. But it also increases aggregate demand. And because demand, not inflation, is the binding constraint it REDUCES unemployment 7/
Central banker on the left believes in tooth fairies, unicorns and a Phillips Curve. Central banker on the right just bought 16 tons of gold