All of this is feeding through into a crisis in hospitals beyond what we’ve seen anywhere else in the world over the whole pandemic. ICUs are twice as full in Nagpur as they ever got in Lombardy last March. Mumbai’s ICU’s are more full than Liège was in Belgium’s brutal peak.
Lombardy, Italy was one of the worst-hit places in the world in the 1st wave of the pandemic. Now, a year later, how many had reinfections? 0.3% And 13-15 X infections for those who did not have covid @JAMAInternalMed
Hong Kong is dense with a crowded subway. It has a lot of travel from China. And yet, no local cases for weeks now. No Lombardy-style lock down either. And, no, it's not the competent government. I wrote about how the people of Hong Kong saved themselves.
A doctor in Turin, Italy says he wants to warn the world, "the only way to prevent a health care system collapse is to enforce a lockdown as soon as possible" and to "increase ICU capacity." He says Turin is probably 9-10 days behind Lombardy.
Earlier this week, people I’ve been talking to were hopeful we’d turned a bit of a corner, but general consensus of my conversations over last day w experts is we’re still not doing enough to avoid Lombardy-like scenarios in multiple cities. Seattle is expecting it.
Italy death toll up 30% over yesterday, up to 827. We are tracking their epidemic about 10 days behind and right now their healthcare system in Lombardy is being overwhelmed.
My God. Lombardy has more than 10 million people. Equivalent to preventing anyone from entering or leaving New York.