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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

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Nate Silver
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it wouldn t work if your polls never had a good year but polling is hard and sometimes polls that have a crapp
It wouldn't work if your polls *never* had a good year, but polling is hard and sometimes polls that have a crappy methodology are gonna get lucky. Meanwhile being "the pollster that always has good news for [insert party]" will win you an audience among partisans.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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tbh not a bad racket to have polls that are consistently skewed toward the gop maybe once per 3 or 4 elections
TBH, not a bad racket to have polls that are consistently skewed toward the GOP. Maybe once per 3 or 4 elections (2016), R's beat their polls, you look like geniuses. The rest of the time, your polls suck, but you BS your way thru it & criticize people who evaluate poll accuracy.
Nate Silver
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re rasmussen worth noting that founder scott rasmussen was ousted from rasmussen reports several years ago in
re: Rasmussen: worth noting that founder Scott Rasmussen was ousted from Rasmussen Reports several years ago (in 2013). While their polls have always had a GOP lean, Scott was a good guy who cared about polling accuracy. The guy who took over (Ted Carroll) is…a…different story.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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u mad bro
U mad bro?
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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a lot to give up but if the lakers can sign a 3rd guy haven t done the math but it looks like they have maybe
A lot to give up but if the Lakers can sign a 3rd guy (haven't done the math but it looks like they have maybe $30m-ish available?) a team of LeBron + AD + FA TBD + Kuzma + 10 replacement level dudes might be the best team in a league where everything's in transition/turmoil.
Nate Silver
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in other words some voters who like both candidates or even mildly prefer warren might stick with bernie so lo
In other words, some voters who like both candidates (or even mildly prefer Warren) might stick with Bernie so long as he seems to have the clearer path to the nomination. But the moment she appears equally/more viable, they could jump to her instead.
Nate Silver
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while sanders supporters and warren supporters are far from perfectly overlapping if i were bernie s campaign
While Sanders supporters and Warren supporters are far from perfectly overlapping, if I were Bernie's campaign I'd nonetheless be concerned that if Warren passes me in the polls at some point, it could trigger a bandwagon effect that would be hard to come back from.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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is taleb part of the intellectual dark web
Is Taleb part of the Intellectual Dark Web?
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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i don t think it matters that much but there s also the chance that the first debate becomes about a breakout
@micahcohen I don't think it matters *that* much. But there's also the chance that the first debate becomes about a breakout moment for Booker, Klob or Beto, all of whom are probably fairly decent debators who have been struggling to gain traction.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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just watched a canadian team win a championship in an american sport while drinking beer from a dutch multinat
Just watched a Canadian team win a championship in an American sport while drinking beer from a Dutch multinational conglomerate at an Irish-themed bar in Brazil while wearing a cap with a Japanese baseball team's logo. Then took an Uber home. Have achieved peak @neoliberal-ism.

The Most Relevant

Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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gotta be honest on a night like tonight i m still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations wh
Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
exclusive fivethirtyeight projection on what the electoral college would look like if women refuse to vote tru
Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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if you re one of those news organizations that treated clinton s private emails like they were a national emer
If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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i know there s a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he s ever tweeted
I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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hard to think of any difference between weinstein amp trump other than one of them was his party s nominee for
Hard to think of any difference between Weinstein & Trump other than one of them was his PARTY's NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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if we don t know if clinton really won the popular vote then we also don t know if trump really won the electo
If we don't know if Clinton really won the popular vote then we also don't know if Trump really won the Electoral College.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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this is obvious i guess but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism put people on tv who have subject matter e
This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists who are asked to opine on a whole bunch of topics they don't really know anything about.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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the recent rhetoric from trump and often other republicans trying to delegitimize election results is awfully
The recent rhetoric from Trump, and often other Republicans, trying to delegitimize election results is awfully dangerous. Maybe the most openly authoritarian move he's made so far.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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if republicans have a good night on tuesday and think they won the midterm on the basis of immigration xenopho
If Republicans have a good night on Tuesday and think they won the midterm on the basis of immigration/xenophobia/race-baiting, just imagine how much Trump is going to turn the dial up in 2020.
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
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about 60 million people turned out to vote for democrats for the house this year that is a crazy number republ
About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Republicans got 45m votes in the 2010 wave.)

And this was sort of missed. Why so many stories about Trump voters in truck stops and not so many about "the resistance"?
Total(1) => 0.4045569896698 f_f_QM(2) => 0.086602210998535 indS(2) => 0.047806978225708 indM(2) => 0.037141084671021 indM_1(2) => 0.0030357837677002 indM_2(2) => 0.00073099136352539 indM_4(2) => 0.002892017364502 indM_5(2) => 0.0025920867919922 indM_6(2) => 0.0015609264373779 indM_7(2) => 0.0066261291503906 indM_8(2) => 0.0018770694732666 indM_9(2) => 0.0092790126800537 indM_10(2) => 0.0082638263702393 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.31605410575867 f_f_dT(20) => 0.3157901763916