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247,233 followers   •   1,425 following   •   Washington, DC   •   http://www.cnbc.com
a Dad who covers Washington, the economy and national politics for CNBC and the New York Times. Find my Speakeasy interviews at http://cnbc.com/Speakeasy

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@jdickerson 143 districts voted one way for president and the other for the House in 1980. don’t have partisan breakdown but since Reagan won big, most of those were House Dem districts
@jpodhoretz @OriginalBad Dave Wasserman 3/17
“To pick up 24 seats, Dems need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps and reach into Trump country. Trump's approval probably needs to be at or below 35% for House to flip”

(Trump's approval then: 43%, about his Election Day level)
@jpodhoretz @OriginalBad Barone, 2/17:
"Dems need net gain of 24 seats — not impossible number, but still formidable. They don't have enough plausible target seats, based on House results this decade, to win a majority if they win, as parties tend to do in favorable years, about half those they target "
46% of voters said someone in their house owns a gun

those voters favored Republicans by 25-point margin

53% said no gun in their house

those voters favored Democrats by 46-point margin
the blue wave of 2018 in a nutshell:

Republicans carried white evangelical Christians by 53 percentage points

Democrats carried everyone else by 34 points

white evangelical Christians are only one-fourth of the electorate

https://t.co/9ExgC9WB7i
expanding margins from 2014 to 2018 that propelled blue wave:

—under 30, +11D to +35D
—women, +4 to +19
—Latinos, +26 to +40
—Asians, -1 to +54
—college grads, -3 to +20
—independents, -12 to +12
—single, +13 to +24
—not white evangelical, +12 to +34

https://t.co/9ExgC9WB7i
expanding margins from 2014—>2018 that propelled blue wave:

—under 30, +11D to +35D
—women, +4 to +19
—Asians, -1 to +54
—college grads, -3 to +20
—independents, -12 to +12
—single, +13 to +24
—not white evangelical, +12 to +34

https://t.co/9ExgC9WB7i
”Even as Democrats gained at least 32 seats and won a clear majority of the popular vote, they failed to capture even a single seat in three big states with aggressively gerrymandered lines: Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina” https://t.co/x6uRyvjWVq
Total(1) => 0.052181005477905 f_f_QM(2) => 0.044116973876953 indS(1) => 0.038980960845947 indM(1) => 0.0035841464996338 indM_1(1) => 0.00061297416687012 indM_2(1) => 0.00037097930908203 indM_4(1) => 0.00043296813964844 indM_5(1) => 0.00052404403686523 indM_6(1) => 0.00053882598876953 indM_7(1) => 0.00046396255493164 indM_8(1) => 0.00040006637573242 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.0064990520477295 f_f_dT(20) => 0.0062541961669922