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Economics Editor, FT

Latest Scoops

NY Times has me as definitively speaking Estuary English and not a Londoner.

I’m a Londoner
My column: People say economists don't get long term assessments right - They should look at the landmark OECD jobs study of a quarter of a century ago. via @FinancialTimes
@DMcWilliams_UK @afneilAnswer to the specific question is “yes”

The more important answer to the implied question -“what effect has the leave vote had on the U.K. economy” is around 2% of GDP. With an uncertainty band of between 1% and 3%
Bank of America says no going back on its $400m plans for Brexit move via @financialtimes

Friends pointed me to an error in this thread, which I missed due to my feeble Italian skills.

Preliminary estimate of Italian growth in 2018 was 1.0% not 0.1%.

I apologise for this error.

It means @afneil got all six comparisons wrong
@ericasalford @afneilI have no expertise in Islands tied to the UK.

For the UK - whatever future staying in the EU would produce - the outcome from Brexit will be worse. How much worse depends on the type of Brexit pursued.

Sensible estimates already put the losses in the 1.5% to 2.5% of GDP range
@afneil Andrew - the numbers you used for Germany and France have been published and yours were wrong.

Since you have been shown your errors and are not backing down, it appears that you are now lying rather than just mistaken
@afneil Now @afneil might think a strike rate of one in six is sufficiently accurate for a senior BBC journalist.

I happen to disagree

@afneil Hooray for Italy - This is the one comparison Andrew got right as is clear from the iStat website https:/

The Most Relevant

Before the UK leaves the EU...

After 15 months of data...

Brexit has cost Britain roughly...

£350m a week via
I've been spammed so often in the past day with this silly tweet from @afneil

The tweet is riddled with errors, comparing data with stuff which does not exist, and apples with pears

Shockingly poor economics from Andrew, but let me explain

TIN HAT TIME John Llewellyn, former OECD chief economist, and one of the least alarmist people I know
There is no Brexit dividend.

The economy of Harrods is bigger than the fishing industry.

Westminster’s economy is as large as Wales’.

Londoners’ living standards are below UK average.

Good policy depends on understanding these truths
PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON - Accuracy of Brexit economics forecasts edition

Brexit supporting economists come.........last
All you need to know (concisely) about a supposed ‘Brexit dividend’ for National Health Service via @financialtimes
JPMorgan has a message for Tory leadership contenders confidence on trade negotiations
Very quick skim of the Brexit white paper.

No chance it will fly in the EU27

Stuffed full of cakeism

Trade-offs not addressed. If UK doesn't move, we're headed for no deal
Total(1) => 0.096401929855347 f_f_QM(2) => 0.079718828201294 indS(2) => 0.034983158111572 indM(2) => 0.042645692825317 indM_1(2) => 0.0058379173278809 indM_2(2) => 0.00077486038208008 indM_4(2) => 0.0035281181335449 indM_5(2) => 0.0063929557800293 indM_6(2) => 0.0016720294952393 indM_7(2) => 0.0034360885620117 indM_8(2) => 0.0011401176452637 indM_9(2) => 0.0085141658782959 indM_10(2) => 0.010836124420166 f_f_pTL(2) => 0.0042130947113037 f_f_dT(20) => 0.0039174556732178